March 4, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Musical Man | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | M V P Mookie | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Our Bermuda | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bold Zarb | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Richie Gary | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silver King | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Striking Star | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss You Jo | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Guitar King | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eatorbeeaten | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Get Them Justin | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Creole Charlie | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Alex | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bernie Special | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stone Dreamer | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | G Don’t Know | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Von Dom | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Go Ortego Go | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Chick Be Quick | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Kizzy B | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Ghosting Kim | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Flatter Me Silly | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1A | 7 | Mischevious Mel | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Ostracize | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Differentbutok | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Love That Star | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ma Cherie | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Killeen | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dictator | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | King of Candy | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Aqualityindividual | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gato Americano | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Catalogue | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Go for Moonshine | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Citali | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Skycraft | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Inject | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lady Edith | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Off We Go | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Inajiffy | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Klayton’s Kandy | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Taylor’s Tourist | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blissful Change | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Rock Star Parking | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Wrapper Rule | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Onerollofthedice | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hoodwink | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beyond Heavenly | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jersey Lillie | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Broadway Fire | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brest Fortress | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Walk Me Home | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Office Party | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Spare Cash | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Fairchild | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Gathered Flowers | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Dancefortheempire | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Speed Lane | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Honor and Justice | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mary of Bethany | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Wicked Bisou | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Mucho Macho Momma | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Six Pack | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Colonel Bowman | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Wireless | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | K C Rocket | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Artwork | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Shadow Matter | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Leroy Jenkins | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tulane Tryst | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Gulfstream Way | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Find New Roads | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mizzen Beau | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Raven’s Cry (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Aife | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ylikedis | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | West Bank Baby | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Ginny B | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Teenage Kicks | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Broadway Lady | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Flashing Red | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | More Good Times | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Perfect Reins | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Stop War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Alta’s Award | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Singita Dreams | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Kamara Vision | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Guilty Lover | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Last to Know | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Banquet Chef | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Grey Sloan | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mista Valentine | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bassett | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Runnin Brave | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Multidimensional | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Widdle Zee | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Justin’smemories | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.