March 5, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tuffology | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brooklyn Baby | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Goodnight Gracie | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lil’ Sister Lou | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Supersport Sally | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Custom Cut | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | That’s a Song | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rhett’s Racer | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Freedom Factor | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Corruze | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | More Abundance | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Firewater Jake | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Just Blaze | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hotfoot | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spectrolite | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Loopallu | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jake the Band Man | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Channel Won | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Flash Attack | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Get Directions | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | D’wild Baroness | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ella’s Lil Star | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bar Tap | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Malartach | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Blondie Lox Babe | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cry Like a Baby | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Orb’s Soul | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kinetic Swagger | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Copper Fiddle | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Curlington | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tapage | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jurisdiction | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Briar Jumper | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Caramel Angel | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Arpinella | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Lookin High | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Declined | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Discreet Tiger | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Populist | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shippingport | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Can Imagine | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bucky | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Hot Devil | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fame Feather | 3.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 1A | 7 | Mr. Al’s Gal | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 3 | Crescentcitypretty | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Snowball | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Lost Love | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Sarah’s Passion | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Fort Polk | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nun of Ours | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Eileen Alexandra | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sincerity | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Theboyzgalaxy | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Explosively Hot | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Speak to Me | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Breezin Bye You | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Isle Girl | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spanish Kingdom | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shake Some Action | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | On a Spree | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Natural Power (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Duke of Carthania | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Jays | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Botswana | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Extraordinary | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Pit Boss | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Kittenofthe Court | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kaitlyn’s Court | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Heart That Binds | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fuhrcry | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Looking Hot | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Slewalyze | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maybe Baby | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Laurel’s Cricket | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nottodayfellas | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gerrie Lou | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.