March 7, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lynchburg | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | First Contact | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Passageway | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jackfruit | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Conative | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jazz It Up | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Ripittotheright | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Reluctant Warrior | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Izzy’s Baby Boy | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Luckenbacher | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Inca Warrior | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Standing Man | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Jaci’s Royalty | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Arctic Rose | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hot Apriority | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Les Paul | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | High Ridge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Deanos Cape | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Heavy Duty | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Life On the Road | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Data Load | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Goforthewinecourse | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | He’s a Lucky Man | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mayberry Saloon | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Musta Got Lost | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Totally Addicted | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bitsy’s Other Half | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ballinonabudjet | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Moment of Stardom | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Irish Bayou | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mr. Universe | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Smarty Alex | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 11 | Apache Tears | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 15 | Degrasse | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Amavi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hotpin | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Captain Ziggy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Joeboy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Charlie G | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Adina | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ezee Enough | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Madison’s Place | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nine Line Bind | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stang It | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lil Peastoch | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Candy Candy | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Honduras Girl | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Ridge Heat | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Smoothoutthetrack | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Emery’s Dream | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Rumpus | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Tommy Lee | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | You’re Doing Fine | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Dogwood | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Glitterary | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It’s My Tune | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dolly Emmons | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pink Posse | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chambers Creek | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Devil With a Dash | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Shanghai Hetty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Perfecture | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Half a Bite | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Love That Warrior | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Starvictory | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tucker the Grouch | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | My Guitar | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jennovodka | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hashtag Speed | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | I Don’t Fly Coach | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Spectacular Gem | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Dust | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Two Emmys | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Artie’s Rumor | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Midnight Tea Time | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dontblamerocket | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Argentello (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | McFeely | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hop Kat | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | G’s Squeeze | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Hong Kong Strong | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Rebel Girl | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Opps My Bad | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Custom for Aly | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ma Cher Amio | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ours Forever | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Puzzling Priority | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pump It | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ibegtodiffer | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Who Dat Grey | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.