March 11, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Impressive Student | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Star Banjo | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tensas Toddy | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Remembermis | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rifle Man | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Taking Notes | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Looking for Bull | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | From Now On | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Senator Con | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Alma Derby | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Antietam Road | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mister Don | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reposado | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Permanentdetention | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Truth Teller | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Our Last Shot | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kannon With a K | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | The Three Ks | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Flashburn | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Light | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heza Fortune | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Happy Sonrisa | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bella Belle | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Better Biz | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Erin’s Enthusiasm | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Elle Corredora | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shake D Moon | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tupelo Hon E | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cirrusly | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Special Connection | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Botswana Taps | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Make’n Tracks | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Gold Account | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pocket Player | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Iadanza | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Max Pandowdy | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Citadel | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Phraseologism | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Freda’s Smooth Air | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | B’s Ten | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Savvy Shipman | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Distractor Factor | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lookout Mountain | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chanson La Belle | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Blessed Anna | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Air Guitar Star | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Toodaloo to You | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Exacta | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shackleford Strong | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | He’s in Charge | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blameworthy | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Inspector Frost | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Regular Guy | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | A C Expressway | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Crime Spree | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Bibleman | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eden Grey’s Kitten | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | State Treasurer | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Priority | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Drakkar | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Greeley’s Banker | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Violent Ways | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Im a Cowboy Too | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cheers to Berti | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | O’L Red | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bistraya | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Grand Omega | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Fire Blaster | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Farewell Time | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Famous Attraction | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mucho Macho Momma | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Frosted | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wicked Bisou | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maybe Later | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Candywrapper Crazy | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Closet Shopper | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rosa Khutor | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Antarctic | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maraud | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Youvesaiditall | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Comedian | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Barleewon | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Armchair Jockey | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gunnison | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Broth | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mishko | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Late Nite Mischief | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Grand Design | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Contact Tracing | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Birthday Party | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tour the World | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mango Tree | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Color Fast | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Easton Rocks | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Okudah | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Charity for All | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flat Out American | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | River’s Raging | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.