Site icon Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 11, 2021

April 11, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Try SFTB Plus for Free

$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.

Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!

Learn More

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chi Town Lady 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Diva Dixie 3.50 4.3 8-1
7 6 Tranquil Times 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 My Girl Steve 12.00 6.2 12-1
3A 3 Brash 12.00 8.8 17-1
2A 2 Party Next Door 12.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Paolina 1.60 SCRATCH
8 8 Jamaican Traffic 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Baytown Valleygirl 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Holly Go Lightly 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 On Deck 2.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Shasta Star 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Its Cold in Dehere 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Black Kettle 3.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Centerfold Angel 15.00 4.5 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Simply Beguiled 3.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Talk Radio 3.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Share My Moon 4.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Bertrada 3.50 4.3 8-1
4 4 How Lucky 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Indian Nichols 15.00 6 11-1
5 5 Hot Dame 10.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Queen Louise 10.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Coupon 15.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fairchild 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Magic Ride 10.00 2 4-1
5 5 Dearest Kitten 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Tracy Flick 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Tayet 4.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Semble Juste (IRE) 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Naked On the Beach 20.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Rosalita 15.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Eida’s Storm 50.00 8.9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Banks Island 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Dean Martini 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Noren 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Get the Prize 2.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Bybee 6.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bourre’ Trick 2.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Speight and Malice 3.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 Breezy Money 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Screenplay 5.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Convection 12.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Sponsored 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 All the Diamonds 15.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Orb of the Boro 10.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Mr. Thunderstruck 15.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Marvelousmoondance 12.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Southern Will 15.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 John Edward 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Starting Over 1.60 3.4 6-1
2 2 Juulstone 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Glynn County 3.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Ready Soul 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Buy Me Candy 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Beachwalker 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Cibolian 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Blanket of Roses 15.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Carmel Bay 50.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Motagally 2.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mo Reserve 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 El Ahijado 50.00 10.3 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Palace Avenger 1.60 1.9 4-1
1 1 Call On Mischief 3.00 2.4 4-1
6 5 Ain’t No Elmers 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 4 Anna’s Fast 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Club Car 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Frond 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dancefortheempire 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Black Sand (GB) 1.80 2.7 5-1
3 3 Bitten by Kitten 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Picasso Collection 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Mischevious Mel 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 The Ginger Queen (IRE) 12.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Robin’s Fantasy 15.00 7 13-1
10 10 Jawhara 20.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Dalida 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 My Sweet Story 15.00 7.4 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

Exit mobile version