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Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 14, 2021

May 14, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Honey Mug 4.00 2 4-1
5 4 Foot Rub Love 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Hoosier Gold Case 12.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Seven Seventeen 4.50 2.5 5-1
3 2 Bobbie too Too 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 6 Lillet 10.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Arch Flyer 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dabo 4.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Devileye 4.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Richiesgotswagger 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Wile E Peyote 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 What’s Up Dude 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Bulldog of Bergen 20.00 4 8-1
3 3 Richiesinthehouse 2.50 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sunflower Road 6.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Grapevine 3.50 1.3 3-1
7 7 Couger 5.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Zawadi 2.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Global Monopoly 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Brest Fortress 20.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Hot N Sweet 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Packed House 8.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Lead Star 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Carte Blanche 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Majestic Hero 30.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Bora Bora 12.00 5.6 10-1
8 8 Chicks for Free 4.50 5.7 11-1
4 4 Majestic John’s 15.00 6.6 13-1
6 6 Shell Fire 1.80 6.9 13-1
3 3 Diamond Dave 4.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Three Amigos (FR) 1.40 SCRATCH
4 4 Ringintheyear 12.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Pitaman 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 7 Skip the Smalltalk 5.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 King’s Story 20.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Captain Fantastic 5.00 4.5 8-1
7 6 Smart Trial 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Agave Kid 10.00 6 11-1
2 2 Special Pryce 6.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Caroline’s Story 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Smack 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 4 Stopshoppingamy 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Sister Ruler 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Summer Storm 4.00 6.5 12-1
9 6 Shez Stuck Up 4.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Pretti Xtreme 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Say Cheese 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Dawn’s Dancer 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lemon Kick 5.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Betwithbothhands 10.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Lykan 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Blue Sky Kowboy 5.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Star of Kodiak 4.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Summer Assault 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Faraway Kitten 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Real Story 4.50 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Frontana 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 4 Day in the Country 20.00 3.8 7-1
11 9 Red Hot Devil 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 6 Uncle Earl 10.00 5.6 10-1
4 2 Sand Mountain 4.50 5.8 11-1
2 1 Radiant Castle 10.00 5.9 11-1
3 2 Battle N Away 30.00 SCRATCH
10 8 Demand Ransom 20.00 6.4 12-1
7 5 Dark Ninja 12.00 7 13-1
9 7 Talis Park Grad 4.50 7.7 14-1
1 1 Sacra Hoxen 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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