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Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 16, 2021

July 16, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dare to Hope 6.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Ah Leah 1.40 1.6 3-1
5 5 Cookin Roses 2.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Zip Attack Baby 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Irina’s Hero 10.00 3.4 6-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Cachaco 8.00 1.7 3-1
6 5 Chopper 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 1 Symbolist 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 2 Irish Tuff 2.50 4.1 8-1
5 4 Skip the Smalltalk 2.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Just Ben 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Grapevine 2.50 1.3 2-1
6 5 Mama Lou 3.50 1.4 3-1
5 4 Second Hand Attack 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Ruler Daenerys 20.00 3.4 6-1
4 3 Twelve Red Roses 3.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Dolly’s Line 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nofansinthestands 12.00 1.4 3-1
5 3 Glitterary 5.00 1.8 3-1
4 2 Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 4 Judy’s Way 3.00 4.5 8-1
3 2 Union Park Gal (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Slime Queen 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Young Corbett 12.00 1.3 3-1
4 2 Easter Music 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 1 Souper Highvoltage 4.00 3 6-1
5 3 Croce d’Oro 3.50 4.4 8-1
7 5 Dom the Bomb 2.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 Greeleys Ice 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Oncewewerebrothers 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Crankshaft 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bells of Joy 6.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Away to Return 5.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 All in a Dream 4.50 2 4-1
5 5 Maid of Honor 2.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Miss Chess (IRE) 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Serene 3.50 3.3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Baseball Politics 3.00 1.2 2-1
2 1 Richy 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 4 Poquito Man 4.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Cowboys Feather 12.00 3.4 7-1
3 2 Violenza d’Oro 8.00 4 8-1
8 7 Myuddermamasapaint 5.00 6.8 13-1
4 3 Talktoeachother 8.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Ringintheyear 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Halo Hunter 2.00 2 4-1
5 3 Huey Attack 4.50 2.3 4-1
4 2 Olson 8.00 4.9 9-1
9 6 First Masamune 4.50 5 9-1
7 5 Diddley 6.00 5 9-1
3 1 Can’t Say No 8.00 5.9 11-1
6 4 Dark Ninja 15.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Never Have I Ever (IRE) 1.80 SCRATCH
2 2 Uncle Earl 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ravens Reflection 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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