July 31, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Master Game | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Woodline | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kevin’s Folly | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Moving Pictures | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hoist the Gold | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Jurkovec | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Life Is Great | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | H P Moon | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Flattery | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eight Weeks Long | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Out of the Breech | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | D’vinicris | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bielefeld | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fast Gordon | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gateway Guardian | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Majestic Sky | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Oliver’s Fortune | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ticket to Antigua | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Addicted to You | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Taco Bean | 50.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Miss Liana | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saratoga Beauty | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cartwheel | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cathy Naz | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lady by Choice | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seeds of Time | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Annika Gold | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tough Workout | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Tone | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tamburro’s Sox | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Brennan’s War | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Noble Conquest | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pivotal Run | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nightspot | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Enroule | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Karma | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bay Defense | 30.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Reunion Tour | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Behind the Couch | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beautiful Karen | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Out First | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shanes Pretty Lady | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ok Honey | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Honey Money | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Khali Magic | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Caramocha | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Chasing Cara | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Ohtwoohthreefive | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Limited Liability | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweeping Giant | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Doctor Davis | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nyquest Nix | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dowagiac Chief | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Spirit | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Stellar Tap | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Spettro | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Accretive | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Causin’ Mayhem | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | K Club | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | R Doc | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wick Loves a Fight | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Invincible Gal (GB) | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Drawn to Race (GER) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Love And Thunder (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Secret Time (GER) | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | High Opinion | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pecatonica | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rivendell | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Say Moi | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trumpet Lilly | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Halo City | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Easy to Bless | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Firenze Fire | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mischevious Alex | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Special Reserve | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Whitmore | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strike Power | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Montauk Traffic | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miles Ahead | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Three Technique | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lexitonian | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Jim Dandy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Essential Quality | 0.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Masqueparade | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Keepmeinmind | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Weyburn | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dr Jack | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Risk Taking | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Bowling Green S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Channel Maker | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moon Over Miami | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cross Border | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Channel Cat | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rockemperor (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Breakpoint (CHI) | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shamrocket | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Knight | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Morocco | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sharp Prospect | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tizzarunner | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Last Zip | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bird’s Eye View | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Counter Offer | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clear Vision | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mandate | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hieroglyphics | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Patriot Drive | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Villainous | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Acker | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.