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Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 16, 2021

September 16, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – William Entenmann Memorial Hurdle S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 French Light (FR) 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Baltimore Bucko (GB) 1.60 2.8 5-1
5 5 Bassmatchi (FR) 6.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Ritzy A. P. 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Booby Trap 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Perfect Tapatino (FR) 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 A Silent Player (IRE) 15.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Lonesome Glory H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 The Mean Queen (IRE) 1.40 2.6 5-1
6 6 Snap Decision 1.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Amschel (GB) 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Redicean (GB) 15.00 4 8-1
7 7 Brianbakescookies 20.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Bodes Well (IRE) 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Galway Kid (IRE) 15.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Coach Bahe 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Orb in the Tower 1.80 2.6 5-1
5 5 Breaking Stones 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Good Culture 2.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Papa Jimmy 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Scotty 12.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Crowding Out 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Lilac Girl 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Chalet Beach (IRE) 10.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Intense Honor 10.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Split Then Double (GB) 2.00 3 6-1
1 1 O’Gotten Girl 3.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Good Talk 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Arch of Fire 30.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gabriela’s Miracle 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Amazing Dream 2.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Prima Della 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Saratoga Kisses 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Afilada 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Amore Fire 10.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Conservatve Values 12.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 London Pearl 30.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Messidor (IRE) 3.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Misspell 2.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Designer Ready 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Lady Petrol (GB) 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Sport Model 4.50 5.3 10-1
9 9 Evvie Jets 12.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Adelaide Miss 10.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Take It Off 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Contained 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Flat Out Beautiful 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 1 Alcools 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 2 Fox Red 3.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Mojovation 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Free Enterprise 10.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Clench 1.20 SCRATCH
1A 7 Happy Farm 1.20 SCRATCH
7 7 Just Right 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 7 Perjury Trap 0.80 2.1 4-1
6 6 Kinenos 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 1 Temple 4.50 3.1 6-1
1 5 Value Engineering 0.80 3.2 6-1
5 4 Farmington Road 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 Summer to Remember 3.50 4 8-1
3 2 Gunnison 20.00 5 9-1
7 8 Zoomer 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Black Licorice 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Exfiltration 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Spun for Lu Lu 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Constitutionalrage 8.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Bella Principessa 3.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 Mondeuse 4.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Lemon Taffy 4.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Killoean Rose 15.00 5 10-1
3 3 Mill Stone Creek 12.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Duckphat 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Elegant Laoban 30.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Angeloverthepulpit 50.00 8.3 16-1
13 13 Grace in Motion 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Barrel of Bliss 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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