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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 23, 2021

September 23, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Poseidon Wrath 2.50 2.2 4-1
8 7 Tap Attack 1.80 2.4 5-1
3 2 Thirtyeight 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 1 Kolsch 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Bassett 12.00 6.1 12-1
5 4 Consider 10.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Priest 10.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Blind Justice 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Convection 2.50 2 4-1
5 4 Petit Verdot 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 5 Tomato Bill 5.00 3.9 7-1
7 6 Schochoh 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Inventing Blame 8.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Toobadsosad 8.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Carbon Stryker 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hyland Haven 4.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Madam Pie 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 My Pharoah Lady 5.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Palace Magic 5.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 As You Were 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Norma Gex 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 I’m Stylin 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Beyond a Million 15.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Spitz 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Shotgun Hottie 3.00 3 6-1
8 7 Implosion 2.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Red Hot Mama 4.00 4.2 8-1
10 9 Keino 10.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Frosted Charm 10.00 6 11-1
7 6 Feeling Happy 10.00 6 11-1
3 3 Tinsel 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 8 Pickin Ana Grinnin 12.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Vicarious Lady 20.00 8.5 16-1
6 5 Secret Melody 20.00 9.2 17-1
5 5 Amaristar 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gimme Some Mo 2.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Moliere 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 All West 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 See the Pyramids 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Eastside Cool 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Cave Hill 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Cancellara 12.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Vasariano 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Just a Irish Lad 12.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Blunder 10.00 4 8-1
2 1 Commander Compton 4.00 4 8-1
1 7 Bon Bueno 5.00 4 8-1
9 8 Ten Gauge 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 2 Condemn 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 6 Rattle N Roll 4.50 4.1 8-1
5 3 Ignitis 4.50 4.7 9-1
7 5 Gilded Age 12.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Harmon Killer Brew 12.00 5.8 11-1
1A 13 Luni Sima 5.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Newt 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mahoney Road 15.00 SCRATCH
12 10 Russian Tank 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Perfect Happiness 2.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Reagan’s Edge 2.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Sterling Miss 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Jungle Juice (IRE) 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 Southern Mama 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 7 Windmill 15.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Break Curfew 15.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Tipsy Gal 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Larimar 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Scintillating Star 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Waters of Merom 4.50 3.5 7-1
10 10 Bhoma 3.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Medley 4.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Tubman 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Senorita Karlita 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Big Bugg’s Girl 15.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Zumra Bayou 15.00 8.2 16-1
1 1 Swap Shop 20.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Sonador 20.00 9.7 18-1
9 9 Lady Terra 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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