September 30, 2021 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rapunzel’s Dream | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bobbi’s Legacy | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | For Kicks | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stormy Derby Day | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gea | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jill | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Naked Illusion | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wilburnrubber | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Secret Archangel | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flat Out Vixen | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Calais Cove | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Deeply in Love | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Overstate | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crumlin Bird | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blu Sky Sunrise | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Polar Appeal | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Born to Be Good | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cliff’s Head | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rosa’s Soul | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sea Fret | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Royal City Reign | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Wicked Miah | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Toosexyformypants | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sea of Diamonds | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | O’Kratos | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cerrado | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Artistico | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Epilogue | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Am Prepared | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gorgeous Kitten | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Courtly Manner | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Leonard’s Bay | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Suitedconnected | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Spa Jazz | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Perlarana | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Modus Operandi | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Factoring | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Canadian Magic | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | The Good Witch | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Merino Wool | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Westlodge Intrigue | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Rince Tapaigh | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Tea Blonde | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hassah (GB) | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pluie d’Avril | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Forest Halo | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | I Have Feelings | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Danger | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pipestone | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trish the Dish | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ann of Cleves | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cefalo | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Call Her Joey | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hai Bobbi | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Capable | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | The Twelfth | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mia’s Authority | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Papa’s Silver | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Delightful Dreamer | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Baby Driver | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Devine Dancing | 2.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flaxen | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mi Tormenta | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Avie’s Sky | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Parable | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Elfin Forest | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Drumgreenaghbridge | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Shes Astylish Katz | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Audition | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Dad Rocks | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 7 | 7 | You Thrill Me | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rogue Affair | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Prideofdistinction | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Woodbridge | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Mambo | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sir Sahib | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Theregoesjojo | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Peace Seeker | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Native Prince | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Strike a Beat | 2.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Personal Journey | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Dominant Factor | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Afleet Eddie | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Dawson Silver | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Silent Fire | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Core | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pride and Passion | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | L’Etat (GER) | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jax Elite Win | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Grand Alliance | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sensible Portions | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Abraxas | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Snow | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Cheeks | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | War Empress | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Let’s Have Fun | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wide Awake | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Lower for Longer (IRE) | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Orbaline | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Blueyed Princess | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Silent Guroo | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Freret | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Bearthestorm | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kentucky Fan | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Tourist Attraction | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Roche’s Point | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | She’s a True Fox | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Storm Gauge | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Go Gigi Go Gigi Go | 30.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.