November 13, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bizzy Echo | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sariah Sariah | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Off We Go | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heart Full of Soul | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alberta Sun | 2.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Della Frost | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sparkle of Hope | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Surf Spa | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nana’s Gray | 6.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Annagangsta | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | California Kitty | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Chamita | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Angelica | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ring Me Darling | 2.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Title Ready | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Indimaaj | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | South Bend | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sonneman | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rushie | 1.20 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lady McKenzie | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gianna’s Gift | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Absolute Love | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diva Banker | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Musical Moment | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dr Frances | 4.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Foreign Exchange | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Icy Stare Down | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Arsinoe | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Backyard Money | 8.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Argumental | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Raceday Attire | 20.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Parlance | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beravina | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bullet On Tap | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Melvin | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mr Creed | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ginnsu Warrior | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Long Crow | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Countrified | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ingersoll | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Charter Oak | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ain’t Straight | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amicable | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Song River | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Break Curfew | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Habobanero | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Mosaic | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Happiness | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss T Too | 2.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Recoded | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hornbeam | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mask Patrol | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Marquee Ride | 10.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cloudy | 12.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Seal Beach | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Epicenter | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Seven Flat | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Minnesota Ready | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Down to Bizzness | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Surfer Dude | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Girl With a Dream | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Devine Charger | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Danae | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Murgatroyd | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pipeline Girl | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunday Grace | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mabee Luckynwild | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Dream Supreme S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Vintage Ready | 30.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blinkers | 50.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Club Car | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bell’s the One | 1.40 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elle Z | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frank’s Rockette | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sconsin | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Almanzo | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Schmooze | 10.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me Midnight | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oiler | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Brawndo | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quick to Blame | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Liam the Brave | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Loonshot | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twirling Blues | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lake Tahoe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.