November 25, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Crusader Express | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nosy Banker | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Musada | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stealing Apriority | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Widdle Zee | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | P T’s Flash | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brook Is Golden | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Boss Man | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Three Ks | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jade’s Classy One | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Louisiana Thunder | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Inca Warrior | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | City Park | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Run Rocket | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’m d’Cat | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hooray Austin | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Thirtysix G’s | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bayou Jam | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Jeb’s Lucky Eight | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Degrasse | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Custom Bobby’s | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Commander Scott | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Louisiana Moon | 20.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blueridge Mountain | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Better Watch Out | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dictator | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Off Sixes | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Skycraft | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Trivista | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cap Rock Miner | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Question Authority | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Citali | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Good Intent | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Shortandsimple | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Amiche | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gladys | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Indian Nichols | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Normal | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zandrea’s | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Good Mongolia | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dance Recital | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | According to Aspen | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Just Passing Thru | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ronnie’s Vice | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Curlin Edges | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Walhalla | 1.40 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Banco | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Masquerade Ball | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chrome Racer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Vero Campione | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Artie’s Rumor | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fenwick Station | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fortuity | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Don’task Don’ttell | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hay Dakota | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Attorney Tim | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Beachcombing | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | War Chest | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twoko Bay | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Celerity | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tapage | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Thanksgiving Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Necker Island | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Strike Power | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Greeley and Ben | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just Might | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Went West | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pyron | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Emerald Forest | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Joseph R. Peluso Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Dominga | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Curly Ruth | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Alms | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | More Than Unusual | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Catch a Bid | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Island Hideaway (GB) | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Breeze Rider | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bellagamba (ARG) | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Key Biscayne | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Winter Sunset | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Valentines Day | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Zumra Bayou | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Candy’s Pride | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Pineapple Alley | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Seriously Sam | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Lake Marie | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Golden Artist | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bett the Limit | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Basalt Street | 3.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Sky High Susan | 8.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Dream Peaceful | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Moment to Dream | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 13 | Kinsolving a Win | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 16 | Autumn’s Lil Doll | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Super Et | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | La Feme Jolie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Grey Grey | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.