December 4, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Guitar Slim | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Binding | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Star Banjo | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tune My Guitar | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Taking Notes | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Social Misfit | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Taken Back | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Moment of Stardom | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Apache Tears | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Everlovinghand | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charlie G | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Joeboy | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Port o’ Call | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Enchanted Moon | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Judgmental | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Martinized | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Savvy | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Your Time’s Coming | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Our Blue Jay | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wish Upon a Star | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seehoss | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dowagiac Chief | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tuanis | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tommy Bee | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grael | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Countrified | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Costello’s Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Frolic More | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Soul Streit | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Schmoozin | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Populist | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | In Sky We Trust | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Jimmy Dan | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Surveillance | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sailor’s Return | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | New Year Surprise | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Influential | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flying Fred | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dover Strait | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tecate Time | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spirited Beauty | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strummer | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Abigail’s Beauty | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hotmolly | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Explosively Hot | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gator Proud | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Pan Zareta S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Short Summer Dress | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Love and Money | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Elle Z | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fiduciary (GB) | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Yes It’s Ginger | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brooke Marie | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Advocating | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Elle’s Town | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kela’s Turn | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ghosting Kim | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Inajiffy | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Soul Song | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Halfmoon Reef | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Like Mike | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Bella Brown | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | War Count | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Win Ya Win | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Double Barrel Man | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gravy Hound | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dixie Street | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quest for Avette | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | C’Mon Ve | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.