December 12, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Barrel of Bliss | 20.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Love’s Misery | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Inouaintalkintome | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | New York Banker | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spill the Tea | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mill Stone Creek | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Reeley Psyched | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Grape Therapy | 8.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Decreed | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Torren’s Tale | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Starship Reina | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Al’s Gal | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stefanie On Fleek | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awesome Indra | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shasta Star | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Mia | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Scherzando | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lindros | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Forty Comets | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brew Pub | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sir William | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B C Glory Days | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Feathers Road | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Horseshoe Falls | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | A Ring Thing | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Speed Zone | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Lucky Sitka | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tootsie’s Song | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Scott Alaia | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Creative Legacy | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Happylife | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweeter | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Gagliano | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Cinnamon Dream | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Path Less Taken | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bonana Fanna Foe | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Phenomenal Woman | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Captivating Cara | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Starship Rogue | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Escapology | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Emerald Banker | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Ethel’s Doctorate | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elegant Laoban | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | New York Supreme | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pier Forty | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Speechin N Teachin | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Beach Front | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Striking Speed | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Exxtop | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beatthatflew | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Big Wonder | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kid Chocolate | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forever Wicked | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lokoya Road | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | El Samuro | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | My Girl Lexi | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blushable | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ghostghostghost | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cadeau de Paix | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kerik | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Exotic West | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Suspended Campaign | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Paddy’s Princess | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Matoula | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Auburn Hills | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Core Conviction | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Carrothers | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Semper Fidelis | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Adare | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kaz’s Beach | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dust Devil | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Winter Pool | 2.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My First Grammy | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Three Jokers | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bell Boy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grey Quest | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Forestwood Lane | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Jack’s Dream | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crock of Gold | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | War Novel | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Tamburro’s Sox | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Unlikely | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hangout | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tough Workout | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Majestic Tiger | 3.50 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kisses for Val | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Napoleon Complex | 50.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Still to Come | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Boom Boom Kaboom | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Out of the Breech | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.