December 16, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Alita | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Boss Cara | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Anchor Lady | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Mary Lou | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Happy | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Madame Rose | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Delicious | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Fast Break | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Baby I’m Perfect | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aristocratic | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Winning Drive | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Rejected Again | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Mission | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Mount Travers | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Copa | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Simple Sugar | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Summary Judgment | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | After the Wire | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Incontrovertible | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Synonymous | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Elegant Laoban | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Favorite Impulse | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Strong Point | 1.60 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Superbloodwolfmoon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Mandatory Payout | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | It’s Mandatory | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Therisastormbrewin | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mr. Briggs | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | A Colt Named Susie | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Obsessed | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Spectatorless | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Respect for All | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Jaa Mode | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Profusion | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Matty’s Marauder | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Jacks American Pie | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yankee Empire | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indoctrinate | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hangar One | 4.50 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Run Casper Run | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Coach Bahe | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr Fantasy | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Noctilucent | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brockmoninoff | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Eucharist | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Forgotten Mission | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Peruvian Boy | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | What’s My Category | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Giocare | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Glory Road | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perceived | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Prince James | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Roman Empire | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Famished | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Opt | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Demo Doctor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Bold Leader | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Florida Gator | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Southern Runner | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Hagler | 0.40 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Doin’ittherightway | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Life Is Great | 0.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Sterling Hill | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Kong Loves a Fight | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mrtandroseysboy | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Devious Banker | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Empire Station | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vibe Setter | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Almond Cider | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Convertible Freeze | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Regal Empire | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Workingman’s Dude | 2.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Snow | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | El Veinticuatro | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.