December 16, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Custom Sierra | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | K T’s Jilted Groom | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Now Now Man | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Widdle Zee | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Yoakam | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Zion’s Call | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Perigee | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Double Dare You | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Have No Fear | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rank and File | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Winning Quality | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Get None | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gotham City Queen | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Harbor Knight | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blazing Fire | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chambliss | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nosy Banker | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Semi Charmed Life | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pillage Da Village | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Von Dom | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Little Flaco | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Joy of Treasure | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tourrista | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zandrea’s | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Missing Piece | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paytonsattheplate | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carson’s Princess | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sariah Sariah | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Volition | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jackie Moon | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Holden Pass | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ole Stud Muffin | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tool Box | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Waitin’ On a Woman | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Pal Greeley | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Argybargy Buck | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ciroc O Clock | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Conquistador Gold | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Chimney Rock | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Irish Hokie | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jack the Ripper (FR) | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jack the Umpire | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Denver City | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lemon and Diem | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jo Dee’s Angel | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yes He Can | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Isolate | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Coltonator | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Verb | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vice Versa | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alternate Time | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lafitte’s Fleet | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shackleford Strong | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Awe Shackle | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Swizzlecity | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shishito (IRE) | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Run | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamworker | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Sweetness | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zisisit (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Surrey | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Saratoga Pasodoble | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bernabreezy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Call the Colonel | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dictator | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Deano | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Shortandsimple | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trivista | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Better Watch Out | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Landofthepharaohs | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Woman With a Book | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Good Intent | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Promising Shoes | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Citali | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Skycraft | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.