December 18, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Matt Doyle | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Main Event | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sul Pharoah | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Early Voting | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Smart Storm | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Iconic Adventure | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Brother Cam | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Full Moon Fever | 10.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Great Workout | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Forest Spirit | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mister Winston | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Good Culture | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bar Fourteen | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Make It in Ny | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sound Money | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Magnificent Chrome | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Illustrious | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Pit Stop Man | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 5 | St. Lukes | 1.60 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 7 | R Boy Cheekum | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Principality | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Nova Loves a Fight | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Writeitontheice | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 8 | C. B Loves a Fight | 10.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
| 7 | 6 | Rvindicated | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Irie Spice | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Arch Cat | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Troubling Moon | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Foolish Ghost | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mr Phil | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chestertown | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Happy Medium | 1.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | T Loves a Fight | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wudda U Think Now | 3.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Arthur’s Hope | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Clash A. J. | 30.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Silent Running | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Code | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Court Banker | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bold Journey | 1.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Raw Courage | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Dancing With Rico | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Waheel | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Uncle Water Flow | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Asap Restoration | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bosship | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Infeasible | 6.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bert Bert Bert | 8.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Devil’s Edge | 12.00 | 15.2 | 29-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Our Son Jake | 15.00 | 16.5 | 31-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bench Walk | 10.00 | 16.8 | 32-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Kenner | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hoboken Jack | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin Pietre | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Geno | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unique Unions | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stirdatpot | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Iron Lion in Zion | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maseta | 3.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Un Ojo | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Safalow’s Mission | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Stepper | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Swinton | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Blake B. | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | F F Rocket | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | No Burn | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Blu Grotto | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Realm | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Corkman | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Exxtop | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Liam’s Fire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Altered | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Morning Matcha | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yo Cuz | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Howdyoumakeurmoney | 3.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mrs. Banks | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Laochi | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Half Birthday | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Laoban’s Legacy | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Alicia’s Way | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bank On Anna | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’s a Big Deal | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Shigeko | 12.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Reggae Music Man | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Big Brown Shoes | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Johnny Fontaine | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Taco Bean | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tapizearance | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | No Salt | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Colormepazzi | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dee Bo | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mo Crazy Blues | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Uncle George | 3.50 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Anything Pazible | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Raven Rocks | 4.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Straight Skinny | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Giramonte | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.