December 20, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 4 | Glance | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Angel of Verdun | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Havinfunyet | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sunday Scheming | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Northern Alliance | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Calaja | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | A Little Flyer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The Gray Blur | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aw Shucks | 1.80 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Holy Spirit | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Harper’s Deelite | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Money Cometh | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sir Advent | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chapel Barn | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | First Glimpse | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kissalot | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dr. Benny | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hero Dragon | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Webcam | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Trump Flag | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Vegas Delete | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tap Em | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | American Union | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Borgobythesea | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vincitore | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shippingport | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Briar Jumper | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Freightrainfreeman | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More Than Blessed | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paynt Battle | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shar’s Treasure | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pretty Boy Elm | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Behemah Star | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Drewhustle | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Martinized | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Drilling Report | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Freddie Mac | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Muffin Nuts | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dusty Boy | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Supertaleofhoudini | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Livy B | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Emily Who | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Magical Stardust | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hero’s Daughter | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mairsils First | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Tappin’time | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Taylor’s Wish | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candy Anne | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Face Card Contessa | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Notreallynotreally | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hidden Wonder | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Aim Is True | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bernabreezy | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Fire | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gun Slingin | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Poronui | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Opportunity Knocks | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Gambling Cat | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mo Normal | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hohohoho | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Believing | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Spellbinding | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | I’m Fine | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Maid of Honor | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Now Yus Cant Leave | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | Misty Veil | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 11 | Lady Frosted | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Distorted Verve | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Delta Traveler | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cheapskate Diva | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Elsie Girl | 1.60 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Scrappy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sadie’s Ransom | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Anslie’s Gumdrop | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aden’s Ransom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Standupdon’tkneel | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mercedes Ladies | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shelli’s Angel | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.