March 17, 2022 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sir Pokerface | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Guitar | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Harbor Knight | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tin Delay | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Ridge | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Semi Charmed Life | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Musada | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Counterfeit | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vicious Velma | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | C C’s Cowgirl | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dressedtoimpress | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tethered | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | La Danta | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | C C’s Freedom | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Veils and Vows | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | It’s Time Baby | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Diamond Indy Skies | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Super Fire | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Trafalgar Shore | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dial It Up a Notch | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sweet Truffles | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Queen Cordelia | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ma Cherie | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Joan’s Way | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Woman With a Book | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Landofthepharaohs | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eastside Boy | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Redoux | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jurisdiction | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moment | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Full of Run | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | October Surprise | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Si Es Goya | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hay Dakota | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sumitup | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maw Maw’s Sophia | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Box of Pictures | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Underrated | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Goodnight Gracie | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sho Nuff | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | A. K. A. Grams | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Velvet Night | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Honorary Guest | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Turf Dancer | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Freeze the Day | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Valiant Mini Star | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Plants and Birds | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dove With a Cause | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Junie | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | I Got Wings | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shishito (IRE) | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | American Smooth | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Invisible War | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hornswoggle | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Cut | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Outlier | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Soul Coaxing | 4.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cousin Larry | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Trivista | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mahoney Road | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tempo Madness | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Levee Proud | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Art Heist | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eye Dee Kay | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smooth Custom | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Evan Sing | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twentyone N Change | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Can’t Hush This | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Cloud Without Rein | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Graded Vision | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Custom Prayer | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Catchin Drama | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Elvin | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Heza Sexy Zong | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Iron Fortune | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Permanentdetention | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Justa Buster | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Big Merrill | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.