March 18, 2022 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dolce Sera | 30.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oh Mrs. Maisel | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Point Pleasant | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Roz | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Khuluq | 1.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Culdee | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ragtime Blues | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Montauk Daddy | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Pete | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | P J Advantage | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tale of Mist | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Steam Engine | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Live in Five | 0.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Elegant Laoban | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Little Miss Minion | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dare to Be Great | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Emerald Banker | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alarra | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Keen Dancer | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fight On Lucy | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ruvies in Time | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baba | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awillaway | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Betsy Blue | 1.20 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Happy Sophia | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Mission | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Alpine Queen | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kerik | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Calescent | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | A Ring Thing | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amity Island | 1.80 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chaysenbryn | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Noble Journey | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Emperor’s Cause | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Castle | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | El Mayor | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oliver’s Fortune | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Tiger | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Esor | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Thinking It Over | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Leeloo | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready A. P. | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Easy Play | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Honorable Ruth | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bank On Anna | 2.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ribot’s Valentine | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | One Whirlwind Ride | 30.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jake Rocks | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Subsidize | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cajun Commander | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Prisoner | 1.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colormepazzi | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Mad | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Captivating Cara | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pretty Clever | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cinderella’s Cause | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mazal Eighteen | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Snicket | 2.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bankers Daughter | 3.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Al’s Gal | 10.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Frosted Bourbon | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Violentiam | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Amedeus Music | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Raw Courage | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fast N Fearious | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | He’s Got It | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alarming Mission | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red D G P | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pepper King | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Joe Gonzalez | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.