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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 20, 2022

May 20, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Grand Oak (IRE) 0 0-1
3 3 Dominicana 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Moon Magic Chrissy 8.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Grand Oak (IRE) 2.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Realitos 5.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 She’s Jersey Tuff 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Cowichan (IRE) 1.80 5.7 11-1
5 5 You’re a Dandy 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Late September 3.00 1 2-1
1 2 Jeremy’s Jet 5.00 1.8 3-1
7 8 Tivy 2.50 2.3 4-1
8 9 Easy Big Boy 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 La Mari 10.00 3.4 7-1
2 1 El Gavilan 15.00 3.5 7-1
1A 4 You Chose Wisely 5.00 6.3 12-1
4 5 Archarch Cat 12.00 9 17-1
5 6 Revere Note 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Matt’s Honey 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Queen Louise 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Positive Vibes 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Kimberley Dream 3.50 4.9 9-1
6 6 Carry On 4.00 5 9-1
2 2 She Wants More 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Very Wealthy 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Rufa Red Knot 3.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Hot Anna 2.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Cami Cat 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Shrimpie 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Tones 8.00 7 13-1
3 3 Day N the Stars 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cowboy Diplomacy 3.50 1 2-1
5 6 Next 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 5 Attentive 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Artemus Eagle 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 4 Intraday (BRZ) 3.00 3.2 6-1
6 7 Good Juju 8.00 5.3 10-1
1A 3 Celerity 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Best Bet 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Engrave 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Minnesota Ready 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Can’t Hush This 8.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Active Duty 10.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Bluegrass Royale 6.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Hill of Gold 6.00 7.7 14-1
10 10 Sea Force 5.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 Mustazeed 15.00 9 17-1
6 6 Overslept 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Verb 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Full Impact 2.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Hope and Dignity 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Roderick 3.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Emerald Express 12.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Majestic West 10.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Picasso 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Unified Report 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Monition 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Skyro 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Continental Coins 10.00 4 8-1
11 11 Split the Wickets 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 El Kabong 4.50 5.4 10-1
12 12 Ocean Atlantique 15.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Point Me By 8.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Speitful Sam 20.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Jimmy Dan 12.00 7 13-1
2 2 Shackleford’s Joy 20.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Haig Point 12.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Eron Do Jaguarete (BRZ) 12.00 10.7 20-1
13 13 Megacity 6.00 18 34-1
17 17 Pirate’s Punch 3.00 18 34-1
14 14 Attorney Tim 12.00 18 34-1
18 18 Claytnthelionheart 4.00 18 34-1
16 16 Mutakatif (IRE) 12.00 18 34-1
15 15 Cullum Road 15.00 18 34-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Plausible Denile 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Prize Fighter 8.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Paid Twice 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Open Road 3.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Kiawah Breeze 6.00 4 7-1
4 4 Predominate 4.50 5 10-1
8 8 Roaring Gap 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 York Tavern 10.00 9 17-1
5 5 Boone’s Path 12.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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