June 8, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Undalay | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Dreaming | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Clear the Deck | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Prove Right | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | John Grey | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Three Zero | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mardukas | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Horse Greedy | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Man Flintstone | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Boss Factor | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drewzano | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Colombiano | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Areyoutalkingtome | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Money for Mischief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Beverly’s Charge | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Risata | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hillstone Martini | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Moon Over Tuscany | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | J Zertz | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flourishing | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Cotton Candy Annie | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | K C Mo | 12.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shoplifter | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Sabra Tuff | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Gonna Cut It | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Eyes of Gold | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | My Baton Rouge | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Divina Dulce | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Shackled by Lust | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gagetown | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Santa Cruiser | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bohemian Boy | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Emerald Express | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Belfast Boy | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pico d’Oro | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | One More Baby | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hometown Hero | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | North Bay | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | On Spot | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B G Lee | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mizzen Man | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tricolour | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Snowscape | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Treaty | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sensible Jim | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honorable Vow | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Atomic Tone | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | General Strike | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hippodrome | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Afjan | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Actuator | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jonas’ Dream | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Papa Rocket | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | York Tavern | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bendettijoe | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stand for Freedom | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Boone’s Path | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Two Sixtyone | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Viburnum | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Off We Go | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Waywardness | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sparkle of Hope | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Celestial Spin | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hatari | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dreamful | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Stellar Grace | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ballykeen | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Home Run Trick | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Exulting | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bear Oak | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Indian Gulch | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Leader of Men | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eagle Pass | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tiz Light the Way | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Higher Authority | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Again | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hidden Promise | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Bear Alley | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mobster Gun | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.