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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 15, 2022

September 15, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Blunder 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Ashwins Orb 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Thach 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Predominate 3.50 6 11-1
6 6 Hornbeam 4.50 6.2 12-1
10 10 Atomic Tone 5.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Big Pete 30.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 A C’s Analyzer 20.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Hey Boss 15.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Old Chester 30.00 9.8 18-1
7 7 Jackys Back 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Star Entertainer 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Guana Cay 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Tap Dancing Lady 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Le Da Vida (CHI) 8.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Smarmy 4.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Powder River 2.50 6.5 12-1
3 3 Temper Time 3.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Compelling Smile 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 One for Richie 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Big Sport 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Totalizer 3.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Thirsty Betrayal 3.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 Eagle Pass 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Tetsu 12.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Crime Spree 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Honorary Degree 30.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 All West 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Can Imagine 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Spend Benjamins 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Insolito 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Pine Valley 12.00 4 8-1
2 2 Constitutional Law 12.00 4 8-1
11 11 Norgay 15.00 4.4 8-1
12 12 Vintage Vinyl 20.00 4.9 9-1
13 13 California Express 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Supremely 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Scratchoff 12.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Final Approach 12.00 8.7 16-1
10 10 Lucky Smile 3.50 10.2 19-1
4 4 Cobblestone 10.00 11 21-1
3 3 Cougar Jack 20.00 11.6 22-1
7 7 Cloud Without Rein 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Hallow Point 12.00 1 2-1
13 12 Rungius 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 6 Track Mate 2.50 6.3 12-1
5 4 Summonyourcourage 2.00 6.6 13-1
3 2 Frank’s Honor 10.00 7.4 14-1
8 7 California Twirl 15.00 8.7 16-1
9 8 Hard to Come By 12.00 9.3 18-1
2 1 Bluff City 15.00 9.4 18-1
6 5 Traffic Master 15.00 9.5 18-1
11 10 Princely 12.00 13.8 26-1
10 9 Tiz Twenty Twenty 15.00 14 26-1
12 11 Mr Midway 20.00 14.4 27-1
1 15 Wadsworth 8.00 SCRATCH
14 13 Welaka 12.00 SCRATCH
1A 16 Face Value 8.00 SCRATCH
15 14 Kicksandgiggles 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Crackalacking 15.00 1 2-1
3 2 Holiday Decision 10.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Pachuca 3.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 T Max 10.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Free Drop Maddy 4.00 6.9 13-1
2 1 Santa Fe Gold 10.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Mornin’ Boss 15.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 B G Warrior 20.00 9.6 18-1
10 10 Happy Clouds 20.00 9.8 18-1
4 4 Karma Ghia 30.00 11.9 22-1
9 9 Shoplifter 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Boss Lady Bailey 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 13 Need Some Money 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Heart Rhythm 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gun It 2.50 2 4-1
4 4 Surveillance 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Torontotoro 12.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Here Mi Song 10.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Ready to Pounce 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Hidden Scroll 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Major Fed 8.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Night Time 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Robo Man 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Supertaleofhoudini 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Cycologist 4.00 2 4-1
11 11 Eclipsed 10.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Forgot Password 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Sweet Ginger 20.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Jersey Gold 30.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Pontiffany 12.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Pappysaysyes 6.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Inspeightful 5.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Total Discretion 20.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Ipsum Gratus 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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