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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 22, 2022

September 22, 2022 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Best Seller 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Free Spirited 3.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Goodbetterbest 4.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Tattered Heart 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Miss Addie Lynn 12.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Lucky Phoenix 10.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Top Mule 10.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Unleash the Spirit 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Duplantis 4.50 1 2-1
11 11 Home School 15.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Led Tasso 12.00 6 11-1
4 4 Housed 3.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Driven by Pressure 5.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Connect Me 10.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Midnight Dreaming 8.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Cambiaso 12.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Affamato 20.00 8.9 17-1
13 13 Crack the Moon 15.00 11.4 21-1
3 3 Ghoststryder 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Airtime 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Rocking Rocket 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Grace’s Secret 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Je Suis Rapide 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Ballykeen 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Beach Kitten 5.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Solar Reign 4.00 3 6-1
1 1 Sum More Bizzness 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mayan 0 0-1
2 2 Appeal Denied 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mount Kisco 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 It’s a Bang Bang 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Island Mischief 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Mayan 3.50 6.6 13-1
4 4 Arrogates Spirit 6.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 War Room 6.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Iceatude 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Mo’s Treasure 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Team Leader 3.50 5.8 11-1
5 4 Endpoint 5.00 6.7 13-1
3 2 Ghost Nation 6.00 8 15-1
10 10 Single Ruler 8.00 8 15-1
11 11 Joking Way 5.00 10.7 20-1
7 7 Leola 12.00 11.1 21-1
2 1 Koops 12.00 11.5 22-1
1 6 Rio Moon 12.00 11.8 22-1
6 5 King Russell 20.00 12.2 23-1
12 12 Wild Sean 15.00 12.5 24-1
9 9 Sippican Shop 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 14 Code One 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Highway Robber 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kunshan Bridge 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Lansdowne 6.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Steinbeck 12.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Writeitontheice 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Civics Class 4.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Carbonite 3.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Oro de Moro Moro 10.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Button Boy 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Page One 0 0-1
7 7 Schmoozin 15.00 1 2-1
10 10 Run Classic 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Let My People Go 15.00 3 6-1
2 2 Improbable Journey 6.00 4.5 8-1
13 13 Go Emi 20.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Marching 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Marsalis 3.00 7 13-1
8 8 Embrace 20.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Badgeball 4.50 7.2 14-1
1 1 Spartan Army 8.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Flint Ridge 12.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Page One 8.00 10.5 20-1
12 12 Malibu Mike 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 You Vee Cee 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Seal Beach 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Trashtalkinyankee 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Closed Caption 0 0-1
10 10 Eyes of Gold 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Nursekringledances 4.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Margoinabubblebath 6.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Cloudy Bay 5.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Closed Caption 5.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Stage Bell 15.00 13.1 25-1
12 12 Lady Brett Ashley 30.00 13.2 25-1
7 7 Oath of Allegiance 15.00 13.3 25-1
2 2 Connelmaura 12.00 13.4 25-1
3 3 Mor Happy Hours 20.00 13.8 26-1
8 8 Dreaming Always 30.00 14.5 27-1
14 14 Happysecret 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Tribal Spirit 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Pioneer Parade 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Frostalicious 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ladan 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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