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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 4, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 B Dawk 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Search Engine 5.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Open Road 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Ethereal Road 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Business Model 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Droppin G’s 20.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Jungle Warfare 20.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Double Thunder 30.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Mohaafeth 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Klassy Bridgette 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Vivid Dreams 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Stay Fabulous 12.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Affirmative Lady 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Black Forest 6.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Adiva 5.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 La Perla Nera 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Lovin’ On the Run 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Magical Song 8.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Strikingly Spun 10.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Indy Again 30.00 8.2 16-1
12 12 No Guilt 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Spartan Army 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Seal Beach 10.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Let My People Go 15.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Papa Rocket 20.00 7.7 15-1
11 11 Marsalis 1.20 8.7 16-1
4 4 Mac’s Time 30.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Appeal Denied 4.50 9.5 18-1
6 6 Pro Oxidant 8.00 9.8 18-1
7 7 Page One 20.00 10.1 19-1
1 1 Call Me Fast 10.00 10.2 19-1
2 2 Uncaptured Sky 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Giant Mischief 0 0-1
Protege 0 0-1
4 4 Baytown Lovely 20.00 1 2-1
9 9 Arabian Lion 1.40 6.7 13-1
12 12 Protege 4.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Tap in Formation 10.00 8 15-1
11 11 Tres Soles 5.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Welaka 15.00 8.2 16-1
10 10 Old Alliance 30.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Giant Mischief 8.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Jin Tong 30.00 10 19-1
5 5 Huntertown 30.00 10.2 19-1
1 1 Prove Right 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Princely 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance S.) – Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rattle N Roll 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Heywoods Beach 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Cupid’s Claws 20.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Sheriff Brown 10.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Next 15.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Bal Harbour 3.50 4.5 8-1
9 9 Win the Day 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Kazan (IRE) 30.00 7.7 14-1
10 10 Always Above 8.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Claytnthelionheart 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Private Creed 12.00 1 2-1
7 7 Oxymore 8.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Sharp Aza Tack 15.00 2 4-1
8 8 American Apple 20.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 The Platinum Queen (IRE) 3.50 8.3 16-1
2 2 Love Reigns (IRE) 4.00 9 17-1
1 1 Lady Hollywood (GB) 15.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Persian Force (IRE) 15.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Mischief Magic (IRE) 8.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Speed Boat Beach 6.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Dramatised (IRE) 15.00 9.7 18-1
10 10 Tyler’s Tribe 15.00 11.3 21-1
15 15 Mounsieur Coco 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bushido 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 No Nay Hudson (IRE) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Netjets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies) – Netjets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Raging Sea 0 0-1
5 5 Wonder Wheel 5.00 1 2-1
14 14 Raging Sea 8.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 And Tell Me Nolies 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Sabra Tuff 30.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Vegas Magic 30.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Chop Chop 4.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Chocolate Gelato 3.50 9.4 18-1
13 13 Leave No Trace 20.00 9.8 18-1
2 2 You’re My Girl 10.00 10 19-1
9 9 Grand Love 20.00 10.1 19-1
6 6 Alma Rosa 30.00 10.2 19-1
8 8 Atomically 12.00 10.3 19-1
12 12 Shoplifter 20.00 11 21-1
11 11 American Rockette 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Comanche Country (IRE) 15.00 1 2-1
13 13 Xigera 8.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Cairo Consort 12.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Delight 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Pleasant Passage 12.00 10.2 19-1
10 10 Meditate (IRE) 4.00 10.3 19-1
12 12 Midnight Mile (IRE) 10.00 10.4 20-1
4 4 Free Look 5.00 10.4 20-1
14 14 Basil Martini (IRE) 15.00 11.1 21-1
8 8 Manhattan Jungle (IRE) 30.00 11.5 22-1
6 6 Be Your Best (IRE) 8.00 11.7 22-1
7 7 Spirit Gal (FR) 20.00 11.8 22-1
3 3 Last Call 20.00 12.8 24-1
15 15 Bling 30.00 13 24-1
11 11 G Laurie 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Alluring Angel (GB) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance) – Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Curly Jack 0 0-1
Forte 0 0-1
3 3 Cave Rock 0.80 1 2-1
4 4 Forte 4.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Lost Ark 20.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 National Treasure 8.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Blazing Sevens 6.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Verifying 10.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Curly Jack 20.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Congruent 30.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Hurricane J 30.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Wound Up 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Victoria Road (IRE) 0 0-1
2 2 Packs a Wahlop 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Andthewinneris 5.00 1.4 3-1
11 11 Reckoning Force 20.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Nagirroc 20.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Really Good 30.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Webslinger 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Silver Knott (GB) 3.00 9.1 17-1
12 12 Mo Stash 20.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 Victoria Road (IRE) 8.00 10.6 20-1
13 13 Major Dude 10.00 11.4 21-1
8 8 I’m Very Busy 4.50 11.8 22-1
5 5 Battle of Normandy 20.00 12.8 24-1
14 14 Gaslight Dancer 30.00 13.8 26-1
3 3 Curly Larry and Mo 30.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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