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Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 11, 2022

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Total Malice 1.80 1 2-1
2 1 Havinfunyet 3.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Izeonpoint 3.50 5.2 10-1
1 2 Romantic Beast 4.00 5.5 10-1
6 7 Zandrea’s 5.00 5.7 11-1
1A 6 Suffragette 4.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Vita 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Trader Price 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Lil Woadie 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Half Magic 3.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Basti Blue 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Risktaker 4.50 5.1 10-1
6 6 Cigar Van 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Lit a Shuck 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Taurean 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Duvee 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Runninginthemoney 4.00 1.3 2-1
1 5 Gutzy 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 2 Mo Credo 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 1 Smarty Alex 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Single Shot 6.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Autumns Strong Man 8.00 5.4 10-1
1A 8 Tambourine Star 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Spellbinding 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Isolation 3.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Calaja 5.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Fashion Merit 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Bellamy Cay 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Great in Red 4.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Explosively Hot 10.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 My Little Jen 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Blurt 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Plemmonston 4.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Da Gold Room 8.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Overthought 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Rooster Run 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Max Pandowdy 10.00 3 6-1
6 6 Lucky Crusader 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Okudah 8.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Pleasant Vision 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Soft Pants 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Klimtomaniac 4.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Creative Strategy 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Simply Wow 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 La Boucane 6.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Mr Majestic 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 Gluckstadt 8.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 G’s Law 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Lucky’s Secret 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Slim Man 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Britain’s Kitten 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 5 Shippingport 8.00 3.2 6-1
1A 9 Smokey Harbor 4.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Doctor Nash 6.00 4 8-1
3 2 Minnesota Ready 4.50 4.1 8-1
4 3 Nelson Avenue 6.00 5.4 10-1
1 6 Direct Order 4.50 SCRATCH
2 1 Mau Mau 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Relic Hunter 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Check Me Out 15.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Big Boo 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Go Brother Go 8.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Infinitesimal 6.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Field of Vision 3.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Run On Aces 4.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Heza Chain Breaker 15.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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