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Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 My Man Matty 0.80 1 2-1
4 4 Empire Sky 3.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Dreampoint 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Red D G P 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Callaloo 4.50 4.5 8-1
2 2 Trevor Bardette 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Win for Gold 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Good Skate 1.80 2.6 5-1
4 4 King James 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Amedeus Music 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Catching Cupid 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 One More Score 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lohengrin Two 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Poppy’s Pride 2.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Miami Chrome 10.00 2 4-1
3 3 Casalsa 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Mr. Pete 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Musical America 8.00 7 13-1
5 5 Cavaradossi 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 Will Be Famous 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Howzyourcashflow 3.00 1.2 2-1
7 8 Miss Mia Lia 4.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Germany Jayvo 6.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Indyan Penny 20.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 My Gorgeous 20.00 3.6 7-1
1A 5 Aunt Berra 3.00 3.7 7-1
8 9 Tap It Up 2.50 SCRATCH
6 7 Nightsaber (GB) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Midnight Rosie 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Aperol Spritz 3.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Blanchiment 10.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Queens Over Threes 4.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Pauciloquent 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Shasi 12.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Aeron Warrior 10.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Good Morning Kiss 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 El Mayor 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Turnsandconditions 3.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Quickflash 2.00 3 6-1
9 9 Majestic Tiger 4.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Waheel 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Brunate 4.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 Storm Shooter 8.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Bingo John 20.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Exxtop 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 9 Baby Man 3.00 1 2-1
4 3 Caragate 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 Mercy Mercy 5.00 2.8 5-1
1 8 Suspended Campaign 3.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Spiked 1.80 5.8 11-1
8 7 Mommasgottarun 6.00 7.1 13-1
2 1 Byhubbyhellomoney 20.00 7.4 14-1
7 6 Vienna Code 30.00 8.5 16-1
6 5 Into Happiness 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sweet as Sugar 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Knot Anymore 4.50 4 8-1
8 8 Idaka 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Left Leaning Lucy 4.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Princess Pinky 3.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 More Mango 15.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 London Gold 6.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Carly Hustle 30.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Exfiltration 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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