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Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Custom Prayer 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Reecemania 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Royal Unlimited 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Got Me a Chrysler 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Buck Doll Taylor 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Valid Early 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Happy Season 8.00 8 15-1
2 2 Inspector Ed 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tio Blas 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Trivista 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Blurt 4.50 1.1 2-1
8 8 Plemmonston 3.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Cabertoss 6.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Cap Rock Miner 10.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Color Fast 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 The Gray Blur 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Blame Day 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Lady With a Cause 2.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Mischievous Gal 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Jayla 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Bella Paloma 5.00 3.4 7-1
2 2 Internet Girl 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Planters Punch 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Stealing Apriority 3.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Mesabi 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Dialed a Dame 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Ironman Richie 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Groom Lake 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Scaryatcanterbury 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Masquerade Ball 12.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Whiskey Gent 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Schnell 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 G’wildcat 3.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Janets Jay Jay 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Binding Agreement 5.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Our Freddie Mac 5.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Available Star 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Cohere 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Mr. Universe 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Catwings 3.00 1 2-1
6 7 Please Be Kind 3.00 1.3 2-1
7 8 Beauxs Artes 2.50 1.6 3-1
5 6 Mad Caper 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Crimaldi 6.00 3 6-1
4 5 Lady Huxley 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Little Fairy 20.00 6.4 12-1
1A 4 Gyurza 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 World War 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Ain’t Broke 4.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Lolloping 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Blissful 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Waywardness 6.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Lady Emily 12.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Livy B 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Cecilita 15.00 9 17-1
10 10 Hat Tip 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Colonel Aby B 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Girl’s On Fire 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Duxonthepond 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 My Guitar 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Unwanted Intruder 6.00 2 4-1
7 7 C’Mon Ve 12.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Gallant Star 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Louisiana Moon 8.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 I’m d’Cat 5.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Pray Ide Sing 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Adieu Le Chat 20.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Donna’s Court 20.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Loveu and Proudofu 20.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Shae’s Day 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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