Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 28, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Balentina 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Dolce Sera 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Nobleandgreenough 3.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Herecomes Scarlett 6.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Graceful 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Mooney Mooney 8.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Germany Jayvo 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Moonage Daydream 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Derrynane 2.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Backed by Gold 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Road to Remember 4.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Diva Banker 5.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Patria 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Shinfull 8.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Tempermental 10.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Starship Laoban 12.00 9 17-1
Road to Remember 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Maggie T 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Luna Loca 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Blowthruyelowlites 4.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Dreamawayseven 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Aeron Warrior 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Attached 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Perfect Senorita 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Smokin’ Hot Kitty 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Snow Loves a Fight 2.50 1.1 2-1
10 10 Bonana Fanna Foe 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Anileate 4.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Always Laughing 6.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Rosemary Potatoes 8.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Cross Island 12.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Heartburn 12.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Ricelle 30.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Crystal Orb 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Doin’ittherightway 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 No More Talk 4.50 1.6 3-1
9 11 Perceived 5.00 1.9 4-1
2 7 Jumpster 5.00 1.9 4-1
2B 8 Dontbelate 5.00 1.9 4-1
7 9 Musical Heart 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 10 Vintage Hollywood 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Cool Quartet 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Bourbon Bay 10.00 4.9 9-1
1A 4 Icy Storm 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Royal Realm 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 11 Icy Reply 2.50 1 2-1
5 6 Cadencia 2.50 1 2-1
9 10 Carbon 3.00 1.3 2-1
4 5 Stella Mars 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 8 La Aguililla 4.50 2.1 4-1
8 9 Bustin Bullet 5.00 2.4 5-1
6 7 No Payne 6.00 3 6-1
2 3 True Empress 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 4 Devilly 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Freddymo Factor 20.00 11 21-1
1A 2 Game Theory 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Nova Rags 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Dot’s Dollar 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Swot Analysis 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Saint Selby 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Big Engine 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Cees Get Degrees 10.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 River Dog 15.00 8 15-1
2 2 No Sabe Nada 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Drink the Wind 2.00 1 2-1
9 10 Doctor Love 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 3 Catching Cupid 4.50 1.5 3-1
1A 7 Super Quality 4.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Major Spin 6.00 1.8 3-1
7 8 Top of the Mint 8.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 El Mayor 10.00 2.5 5-1
8 9 Holey Matrimony 12.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Prince of Joy 15.00 3.4 7-1
3 2 R Boy Cheekum 50.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.