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Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 11, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ajs Whiskey Bent 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Kill in His Dreams 6.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Chloe Rose 4.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Tf Mr Painted Perry 6.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Special Corona Guy 15.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Freighttrain 1351 15.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Jj Nanas Leejess 4.50 8.7 16-1
4 4 Batty Boy 3.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 Corona Comment 10.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Rf Fear the Eagle 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Kpbling 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Blue Bye Patriot 3.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Karlon Charles 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Blue Ocean 8.00 5 9-1
3 3 Heza Okey Dokey Kat 20.00 5 9-1
8 8 Mr Rocky Affair 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Jw Elijah Comment 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Im a Fancy Blue 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden) – Maiden

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Corona Blue Estrella 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Rally Actress 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Marla Cartel Angel 4.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Areasonforacocktail 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Lenas Long Night 15.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 La Zoomin Cartel 10.00 4 8-1
7 7 Lady Eyem Deluxe 15.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Jess Headin Holme 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Jrs Martini Tee 12.00 1 2-1
9 9 Hosanna Hosanna 3.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Ttt Ivan Moonwalker 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 One Fast B 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Flame of the Yukon 5.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Rb Diversify 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Ima Jettin Patriot 4.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 One Famous Game 12.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Nipsey 15.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Heza Righteous Man 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Face of a Rogue 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Jjj Valentino 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Stanny Boy 15.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Megastar Cartel 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Mine That Bird 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Giannirusso 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Nbc Mr Gibson 6.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Monaco Tlc 12.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Lil too Dirty 10.00 9.6 18-1
6 6 Rl Prize Doll 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Kool Kue Baby Blue 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Working for a Livin 8.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Itsacoronayear 5.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Eyesa Bar Five 15.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Bjs Five Bar 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Blue Bueno 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Hes Grandee Gl 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Vg Imtheboss 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Jess My Dash 8.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Geaux Aggie 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Freighttrain Game 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 The Reserve 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Bt Got Game 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Ajs Wild N Out 12.00 5 9-1
6 6 Miss Covid 8.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Tf Runaway Kate 5.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Guccia Fast Tee 6.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Cwfasttrack 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden) – Maiden

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pop a Top Corona 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Code Name Lethal 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Blew Duck 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Kiss My Mud Bug 10.00 5 10-1
10 10 El Capi 3.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Jet Black Game 15.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Jp La Venadita 6.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Astieker 8.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Paquita Perry Piloto 15.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Tf Corona Virus 10.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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