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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Risk It 0 0-1
Special Element 0 0-1
7 7 Special Element 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Risk It 4.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Act of Mutiny 5.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 World Fair 10.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Middle Market 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Hunt Ball 3.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Remember the Name 10.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Gypsy Mischief 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Blast Furnace 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Dancing Groom 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Houlton 8.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Divine Empire 8.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Rocket Night 8.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Dangerous Driver 30.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Tom Collins 4.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Skyler’s Artemis 12.00 8.7 16-1
10 10 Get Ready to Rock 12.00 9 17-1
12 12 Real Men Violin 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Spirit Prince 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Walley World 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Fortune Seller 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Right to Vote 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Buffoon (FR) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Numero Seis 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Shootoutthelights 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Dontlookbackatall 4.00 4.5 9-1
1 2 My Sweet Affair 3.50 4.6 9-1
2 1 Georgees Spirit 4.50 5.5 10-1
3 3 Violet Gibson (IRE) 10.00 5.8 11-1
1A 9 Miss Domina 3.50 6.6 13-1
8 8 You Gotta Have Fun (IRE) 12.00 6.9 13-1
10 11 Obrigada 2.50 SCRATCH
11 12 Little Prankster 1.40 SCRATCH
5 5 Golden Dagger 10.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Howzyourcashflow 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ragtime Blues 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Poppy’s Pride 8.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Ensign Parker 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Flamingo Hawk 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 In Sky We Trust 5.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Air Show 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Handsome Cat 4.50 4.3 8-1
8 8 Quickflash 20.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Great Workout 20.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 No More Talk 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Winning Drive 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 6 A La Carte 8.00 1 2-1
3 2 Abadin 3.00 1.1 2-1
8 9 Durante 3.00 1.6 3-1
1A 4 Daufuskie Island 1.40 1.7 3-1
7 8 Notable Bob (CHI) 15.00 2.1 4-1
1 3 Lafitte’s Fleet 1.40 2.8 5-1
2 1 Harrington 15.00 5 9-1
6 7 Leddy 20.00 SCRATCH
4 5 Tivy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dream Road 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Berning Honor 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Jayla 10.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Leadership Ability 2.50 2.7 5-1
16 16 Mucho Mama Mia 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Pinstripepizzo 8.00 5.8 11-1
14 14 Flutie Flakes 12.00 6.4 12-1
15 15 Lieutenant’slegacy 20.00 7.1 13-1
12 12 So Are You 50.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Lem Me Drink 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Arisaema 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Outta the Cloud 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Samaritan’s Purse 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bella Sonadora 50.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Miss Barb 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Stone of Destiny 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Lake Placid S.) – Lake Placid S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Aspray 0 0-1
1 1 Heavenly Sunday 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Gloria’s Princess 4.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Prerequisite 4.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Aspray 3.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 Surge Capacity 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Soviet Excess 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Tax Implications (GB) 5.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Junipermarshmallow 12.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Leave No Trace 2.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Undervalued Asset 0.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gerrymander 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Misty Veil 6.00 2 4-1
4 4 Favor 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Royal Take Charge 10.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Nostalgic 3.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Mosienko 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Movie Moxy 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Battle Bling 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Alabama S. Presented By Keeneland Sales) – Alabama S. Presented By Keeneland Sales

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Randomized 0 0-1
8 8 Randomized 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Sacred Wish 8.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Wet Paint 2.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Defining Purpose 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Julia Shining 5.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Taxed 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Gambling Girl 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Chocolate Gelato 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 Fireline 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Sabra Tuff 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Verbal 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Storm the Court 8.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Duke of Hazzard (FR) 8.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Whisper Not (GB) 4.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Napoleonic War 3.50 2.4 5-1
8 8 Floki’s Flight 15.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Call Me Harry 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Maxwell Esquire 20.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Runningwscissors 10.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Rinaldi 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Uncle Moonlight 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Tonal Impact 1.60 SCRATCH
12 12 Accretive 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Magnolia Midnight 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Blue Plate Special 2.00 1 2-1
8 7 Kern River 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Heroneandonly 10.00 3.3 6-1
10 9 Henson 1.60 4.1 8-1
1A 16 Petrolo 2.50 4.8 9-1
12 11 Spoofy 8.00 5.8 11-1
11 10 Somama Beach 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 2 Impulsive Spending 20.00 8.8 17-1
2 1 Onofrio 20.00 9.6 18-1
7 6 Majestic Arc 15.00 9.8 19-1
5 4 Okaloosa 5.00 10.2 19-1
1 12 Ripe for Mischief 2.50 SCRATCH
9 8 It’s Not My Fault 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 War Prince 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Woodside Warrior 10.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Kid Emerald 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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