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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 31, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Gold Lightning 0 0-1
9 9 Sassy Princess 6.00 1 2-1
2 1 Golden Ghost (GB) 8.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Kingdom Come 10.00 1.8 3-1
4 3 Deep Conviction (IRE) 3.00 4.4 8-1
1 4 Positive Carry (IRE) 3.50 5.5 10-1
3 2 Gold Lightning 6.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Day Away 15.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Broughty Ferry 15.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Mulima 12.00 7.9 15-1
1A 11 Coach Sessa 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Katherine Thomas 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Life Talk 0 0-1
1 1 Life Talk 1.00 1 2-1
3 3 Backstretch Rose 10.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Under the Palms 15.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Dorothy’s Dreams 6.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Paradise Lane 5.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Rising Inflation 4.00 3 6-1
6 6 Classy Mischief 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Loon Cry 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mz Big Bucks 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Itsakeyper 6.00 2 4-1
4 4 Masterof the Tunes 5.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Queens Dancer 20.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Road to Remember 8.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Ok Honey 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Social Whirl 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Howdyoumakeurmoney 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Fancy Joke 2.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Security Code 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Corner Kick 0 0-1
6 6 Proud Foot 4.50 1 2-1
2 7 Girl Afraid 3.50 1.8 3-1
7 8 Diamond Collector 8.00 1.9 4-1
8 10 Sweet Heidelberg 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 1 Icy Reply 10.00 3.1 6-1
2B 9 Freudian 3.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Brisky Frolic 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 My Girl Jal 30.00 5.1 10-1
1A 4 Corner Kick 1.40 7.6 14-1
1 2 Pillbox 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Screaming Uncle 2.50 1 2-1
13 13 With Purpose 8.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Nieuwendyk 20.00 2.6 5-1
12 12 Saline River 10.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Disappearance 4.50 4.8 9-1
5 5 Chess Spectacular 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Bad Larry 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Fire Baron 50.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Nickel Nickel 15.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Testa Dura 50.00 9.6 18-1
1 1 Bargaining Power 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Vigano 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 I Love Cara 50.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Assertive Attitude 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Charging 4.00 1 2-1
16 16 Tivy 4.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Dr. Settle’s Dream 12.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Speakinofthedevil 5.00 2.8 5-1
13 13 War Terminator 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Brennan’s War 15.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Moon Watch (IRE) 12.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Mshindi 30.00 8.9 17-1
15 15 Moving Pictures 6.00 9 17-1
14 14 Luna Warrior 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Ski Patrol 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Sandrone 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Billy’s Got Issues 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Fadethenoise 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Sway’sinmydna 50.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Don’t Let Me Down 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (With Anticipation S.) – With Anticipation S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Get Spooled 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Spirit Prince 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Nomos 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Wine Collector 12.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Market Street 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Carson’s Run 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Gala Brand 3.50 3.4 6-1
6 6 British Sea 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 G Munning 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Pineapple Man 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Cicciobello 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Bank Frenzy 3.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Leftembehind 10.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Dr. Marbooz 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Boys Code 15.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Ach Du Lieber 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Kunshan Bridge 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Ice Road 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Giroovin 4.50 2.3 4-1
10 10 Tenebris 12.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Amani’s Eagle 10.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Inspeightoftrainer 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Winning Connection 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Arrebato 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Locke and Key 12.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Inevtabl Conection 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Miss Bonnie T 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Lady Hamilton 2.00 1.9 3-1
8 8 Miss M M 4.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Home for Christmas 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Russiarussiarussia 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Clara Belle 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 More Mango 20.00 6 11-1
3 3 Synonymous 20.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Redzilla 50.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Wishing On a Star 1.80 SCRATCH
11 11 Howzyourcashflow 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 You Gotta Have Fun (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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