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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 1, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sonofaship 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sanderson 8.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Irish Gent (IRE) 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Reverend Moon 3.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Patriot Hills 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Vesture 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Cigale 12.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Hard Par 4.50 6.3 12-1
10 10 Run Jalen Run 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Joe’s Dream 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dolomite 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Snarky 6.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Munny Grab 5.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 My Mane Squeeze 3.50 5.9 11-1
9 9 Mother Mary 15.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Carol T 10.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Perfectly Mperfect 8.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Poseidon’s Mist 6.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Wise Conversation 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Security Code 0 0-1
5 5 Fancy Joke 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Silver Fist 6.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Security Code 3.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Khali Magic 2.00 4 8-1
1 1 Shesawildjoker 12.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Ribot’s Valentine 6.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Ok Honey 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Saranac S.) – Saranac S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mendelssohns March 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Carl Spackler (IRE) 0.80 1.5 3-1
7 7 Lost Ark 8.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Yacowlef (IRE) 12.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Taking Candy 8.00 5 9-1
3 3 Freedom Trail 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Gilmore 1.40 SCRATCH
5 5 Activist Investing (GB) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Right to Vote 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Tornado Road 12.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Resilience 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Arteta 15.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Drum Roll Please 5.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Flashy Fast 20.00 3 6-1
5 5 Locked 1.20 3.2 6-1
2 2 Golden Plate 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Sturdy 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Hamilton’s Way 10.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Don Vino Vici 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Focus Pocus 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 My Kinda Mischief 4.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Moon Chariot 30.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Ekwanok 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Midnight Concerto 8.00 6 11-1
9 9 Call Her Bluff 10.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Unicorn Cake 6.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Miss Maximus 4.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Stormy Disco 15.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Regenerator 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Expand the Map (IRE) 2.00 1 2-1
1 3 Quarrel 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Dear Lady 10.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 I’m So Sorry 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Swoop to Finish 12.00 5.1 10-1
1A 8 Rhombique 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 1 Stephanie’s Charm 15.00 6.2 12-1
13 14 Run Devil 15.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Starship Defiant 8.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Amanda’s Folly 6.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Raging Sea 1.80 SCRATCH
4 4 Root Cause 3.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Coppa Girl 2.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Tamarama (GB) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 American Law 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Hatch 10.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Morning Cup 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Gun Maestro 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Fight Fiercely 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Forced Ranking 3.50 5.5 10-1
6 6 Basis Risk 30.00 6 11-1
3 3 Pine Valley 30.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Run Smitty Run 15.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Improper 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Icy Flavor 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Saint Selby 6.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Winners Laugh 5.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Vacation Dance 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Feathers Road 10.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Disarmed 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Bar Fourteen 15.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Disco Deano 20.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 King Moonracer 4.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Me ‘n Sap 20.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Scilly Cay 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Bold Looker 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Deputy Connect 3.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Brooklyn Diamonds 4.50 3.5 7-1
11 11 Strong Light 20.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Justice Department 3.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Mayfield Strong 8.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Inspector 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Excess Demand 12.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Sounds Spooky 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Scotto 30.00 7 13-1
13 13 Ableton 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Proven Hope 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Skate to Heaven 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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