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Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Monday, September 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Wine Responsibly 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Marco T. 2.00 1.9 3-1
6 6 Split Strike 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Khadullah 15.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Red Burgundy 4.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Play Free Bird 20.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 State of Readiness 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Dixie Pharaoh 12.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Woke Up Quick 10.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Solo Rye’d 15.00 8 15-1
16 16 Score the Rock 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Charging Fast 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Dunedin Causeway 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 She Is All Busines 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Follow Your Arrow 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mama’s Dream 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Just Katherine 0 0-1
8 8 Raging Sea 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Coppa Girl 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Mariah’s Appeal 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Amanda’s Folly 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Just Katherine 2.50 4.5 8-1
1 1 Toned Up 10.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Wishing On a Star 15.00 7 13-1
4 4 Tower Bridge 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Bernard Baruch S.) – Bernard Baruch S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Emaraaty (GB) 0 0-1
4 4 Wit 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Public Sector (GB) 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Emaraaty (GB) 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Pioneering Spirit 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Bring Me a Check 10.00 3 6-1
6 6 Jake Rocks 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Senor Jobim 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Swiftsure 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Jemography 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Float On 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Sagamore Mischief 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Scilly Cay 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Flint Ridge 12.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Royal Tryst 20.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 H P Moon 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Lord Captain 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Voleuse 3.00 1 2-1
8 7 Prince of Truth 8.00 2.4 4-1
6 4 Scherzando 12.00 2.5 5-1
5 3 Vaunted 10.00 2.9 5-1
1A 13 Ripe for Mischief 4.50 3.5 7-1
2B 10 Bustino Santino 10.00 3.6 7-1
1 6 Russi 4.50 3.6 7-1
9 9 Heroneandonly 30.00 4.8 9-1
3 1 Okaloosa 4.00 4.8 9-1
2 8 Doctor Jerry 10.00 6.7 13-1
10 11 Sondsliksomdiniddo 12.00 8.2 15-1
11 12 Lady Banker 8.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Z Dancer 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Wisecracker 4.50 1 2-1
10 10 Nippy Fitz 20.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Sorority Prank 4.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Smile Takes Charge 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Diannesretiring 8.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Solo’s Fury 2.50 5.8 11-1
5 5 Bonne Chance 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Winwood 6.00 6 11-1
3 3 Az U Chase Me 12.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Arco Augusta 20.00 7.1 13-1
13 13 Canigetaloan 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Aggelos the Great 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Quiet Wisdom 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Strawberry Kwik 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Catalina Crush 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Vettriano 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Smokie Eyes 5.00 1 2-1
10 10 Waterville 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Overacting 3.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Snowy Evening 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Crimson Princess 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Sals Dream Girl 8.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Sweetest Princess 12.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Joeybignose 15.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Saratoga Chrome 15.00 7.7 15-1
12 12 Shesascoldasice 30.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Spooky Lady 10.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Shoopthereitis 30.00 9.4 18-1
13 13 Stella Mars 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Yogi 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Shigeko 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lavon 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Newport Bridge 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Asymmetric 8.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Win for Gold 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Be the Boss 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Agility 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Always Charming 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Fast Buck Freddy 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Callaloo 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Thank You Jon 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Ten Cent Town 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 American Know How 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Alexis Zorba (GB) 3.50 2.6 5-1
11 11 Kasimba 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Be There 12.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Borletti (IRE) 6.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Liquid Addiction (IRE) 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Collect From Ike 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Off the Clock 12.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Iron Man Jimmy 30.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Social Acceptance 12.00 7 13-1
1 1 Triumphant Road 15.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Unclecharliesgift 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Hopeful S.) – Hopeful S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Nutella Fella 0 0-1
Nutella Fella 0 0-1
Pirate 0 0-1
5 5 Timberlake 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Gold Sweep 6.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Be You 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Yo Yo Candy 20.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Valentine Candy 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Just Steel 10.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Pirate 8.00 5 10-1
4 4 Mission Beach 10.00 5 10-1
3 3 Nutella Fella 30.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Baytown Chatterbox 50.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Muth 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Lt. Mitchell 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Chulligan 4.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Fake Celebrity 3.50 6.7 13-1
12 12 Scaramanga 8.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Prix de West 8.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Unaffected 20.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Paschal Moon 12.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Dolly’s Bank 15.00 9 17-1
4 4 Bastion 20.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Kid Kreesa 12.00 10.1 19-1
1 1 Mugsy Fury 30.00 10.7 20-1
3 3 The Manticore 50.00 11.4 22-1
13 13 Impazible Prince 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Zapruder 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Aula 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hari 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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