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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 24, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Attache 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Power Alley 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Seas of Normandy 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Forever Cool 2.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 El Mucho 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Punctuality 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Platinum Ghost 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Thankgodngreyhound 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Centurion 2.50 5.2 10-1
2 2 Levy 4.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Time to Meddle 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Izeondec 10.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Lemonadeatthelatch 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Goin’ Good 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 New Boss 5.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Linguistic 4.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Carimba 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Baby No Worries 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Ready for Change 15.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Miner’s Queen 15.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Star Devine (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Blues Admiral 4.50 1 2-1
12 12 Off the Cuff 4.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Chitwood 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Back to Reality 5.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Colonel Barton 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Prosecution 12.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Azteca Star 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Savage Kiss 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Valuable Cargo 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Angelico 30.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Play the Blues 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Shady Daredevil 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Bayou Spirit 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Hijack the Party 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fighting Back 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Roundball Rock 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Unwrapped 12.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Away From Home 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Speed Institute 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Guadalajara 8.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Battle Born 20.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Presider 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Smokey Smokey 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Snead 6.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Greers Ferry 3.50 7 13-1
5 5 Creek 6.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Veracruzin 10.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Glenbrook Gerry 20.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Uno Mas Bourbon 15.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Mo Caliente 8.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Yo Daddy 20.00 9.7 18-1
11 11 Aspiring Comedian 10.00 9.9 19-1
12 12 Polar Bear Plunge 20.00 10.8 20-1
7 7 Gorilla Trek 15.00 11.8 22-1
14 14 I’m Your Man 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 All About Tonite 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dashman 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Tizzy Indy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sister Kisses 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Yolanda Who 8.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Shaniah 4.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Ship It 3.50 4 8-1
8 8 Tone Elise 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Alsanah 8.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Silver Sea 15.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Sonador 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Goldenshuga 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Souper Explosive 2.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Fast N Happy 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Saucy Secret 20.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Upswell 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Musical Prayer 12.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Foxfire 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Cause I’m Wild 12.00 8 15-1
2 2 Cobalamin 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Port Townsend 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bramito 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Saqeel 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Night Effect 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Highland Falls 4.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Dai Vernon 4.50 5.8 11-1
7 7 Honed 6.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Secret Pocket 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Ten Days Later 10.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Arro Smash 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lady Goldstart 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Current Climate 3.00 3 6-1
7 7 Showgirl Lynne B 20.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Frankel Baby 30.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Little Jewel 4.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Mimajoon 20.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Majestic d’Oro 4.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Promise of Hope 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Laura’s Charm 5.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Fashion Rage 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Altered Shot 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Pipeline Girl 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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