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Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Danas Mule 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Loyal to the Chief 2.50 3 6-1
6 6 Sum Charm 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Just Another Win 3.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Rosie Sprit 5.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Continental Red 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Field of Vision 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Big Scully 5.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 One Tough Charlie 3.50 2.1 4-1
8 8 Astrologysprotege 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Risky Priority 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Custom Prayer 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Inthealy 4.50 6 11-1
6 6 The Three Ks 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Im Singled Up 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Tres Chic (ARG) 4.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 It Wasn’t Me 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Turbo Prop 4.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Marmo Moon 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Silent Secretary (BRZ) 6.00 4 8-1
9 9 Wine in the Dark 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Capella Red 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Irish Molly 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Play Good Pay Good 0 0-1
2 2 Play Good Pay Good 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Aztec Empress 3.50 2 4-1
6 6 Maylen 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Lola’s Light 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Coffee Crisp 2.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Lady Aberdeen 5.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Frost and Fire 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Candy Bar 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Mystic Creed 5.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Liffey 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Themischievousone 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Classic Claire 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 First Love 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Port Townsend 6.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Fiesta Besta 15.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Truly Grateful 4.50 6.3 12-1
10 10 Orloff 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Runaway Joke 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Barnaby 4.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Philanthroper 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Kingscote 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Den’s Good Grace 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Criminal Intent 5.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Blame Dennis 20.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Sharma’d 10.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Fly’n Frisbee 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sniveling 20.00 1 2-1
9 9 Freedom Factor 3.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Soul Coaxing 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Telephone Talker 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Haleys Sailor 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Mountain Pine 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Malthael 4.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Russian Tank 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Fleet of Hoof 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 B Fifty Two 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Trust Issues 3.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Cookn Wit Catman 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Starstudded Affair 10.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Vincita 6.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Snow King 4.50 7.6 14-1
1 1 Sabi 6.00 7.7 14-1
3 3 Crafted 4.50 8.4 16-1
5 5 Rock N Roll Bolt 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Ragtime Lady 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tempting Lady 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Cora’s Legacy 10.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Miss Harmonic 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Way to Be Marie 3.50 3.5 7-1
9 9 Without Cause 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Still Temper 10.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Purr Factor 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Joyful Image 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Not Tonight Joe 20.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Ms Sedona 12.00 10.6 20-1
12 12 Hauntress 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ms Quality Control 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Broughty Ferry 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fouralivia 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Cajun Ninja 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Louisiana Liberty 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Shes a Lucky Rebel 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Hopeitsmyluckyday 3.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Shelli’s Angel 8.00 7 13-1
6 6 Luminous Flight 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Zaici 6.00 1 2-1
12 12 Hoodlum 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Bella’s Gatsby 4.50 3.1 6-1
13 13 Veteran’s Holiday 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Rooster Run 5.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Conrado 6.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 F J’s Gem 15.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Hey Jackson 8.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 One More Baby 8.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Keesawah 20.00 7 13-1
2 2 Father Patrick 20.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 T J Munnings 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Over Calendared 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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