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Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 4, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Elite Forces 0 0-1
2 2 Elite Forces 0.60 1 2-1
4 4 Street Swagg 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Necromancer 4.50 5.7 11-1
5 5 President Z 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 He’s Got It 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Return the Ring 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Timed Out 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Vegas Weekend 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Freudian 2.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Run Devil 3.50 5.5 10-1
1 1 Jackie the Joker 6.00 5.6 10-1
5 5 Halo City 8.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Whistler’s Style 3.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Beary Funny 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Nobilis 5.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Escape Key 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Munny for Nuthin 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Waflr 8.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Dolly’s Bank 20.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Lookin’ to Win 30.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 Tuesday’s Child 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Perfect Outcome 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sittin On Go 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Portos 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Optic Way 2.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Bold Victory 1.80 2.9 5-1
6 6 Higher Quality 6.00 4 7-1
1 1 Life and Light 30.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Hang Tight 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Quickflash 6.00 1 2-1
3 2 Big Engine 2.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Tommy Gun 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Bar Fourteen 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 1 Market Alert 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Bustin Shout 4.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 No Salt 8.00 4.8 9-1
1A 10 Full Moon Fever 15.00 5 9-1
6 6 Prince of Joy 20.00 6.6 13-1
1 3 First Deputy 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 She’s Awesome 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Magniloquent 3.50 1.3 3-1
6 6 Kid’s Last Laugh 3.50 2.9 5-1
1A 7 Divine Cross 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Stop Giggling 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Mim 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 2 Killy Start 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Red Pepper Grill 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Majestic Return 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Fontanafredda 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Missing Fortune 5.00 3 6-1
1 1 Im Just Kiddin 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Silver Fist 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Cousin Kristi 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Sue Ellen Mishkin 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Good Reunion 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 The Mighty Don 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Chalky Cat 5.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Malibu Mystery 12.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Fluorescent Bay 20.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Alpha Sonny 15.00 7 13-1
5 5 Sin Nombre 5.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Support the Cat 30.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 English Storm 20.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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