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Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 11, 2024

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Memphis 2.00 1 2-1
1A 6 Mudville Nine 2.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Opportunity Set 2.50 2.3 4-1
6 7 Collect From Ike 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Screw Loose 4.00 3.4 7-1
2 4 South Street 4.50 6.9 13-1
5 5 Flash Kiss 5.00 7.3 14-1
2B 8 Pine Valley 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cupids Girl 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Diamond Collector 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Jackson Avenue 5.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Simple Sugar 4.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 High School Crush 6.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Maddie’s Surprise 10.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Wartapped 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Gift Wrap 0 0-1
6 6 Killy Start 6.00 1 2-1
1A 9 Beautiful Karen 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 I’m Buzzy 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Jackie the Joker 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 7 Midtown Rose 8.00 3 6-1
9 10 Our Little Tiger 12.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Meraviglioso 12.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Diva Banker 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Honorable Lilly 20.00 6 11-1
8 8 Slack Tide 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Roja Ligera 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Silver Fist 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Bern Rosey Bern 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Lincolnville Beach 6.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Mended We Stand 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Lockbox 10.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Fuligni 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Try It Again 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Morethanafeeling 0 0-1
3 3 Signal Corps 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Shpilkes 3.50 3.6 7-1
9 9 Locke and Key 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Shared Success 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Morethanafeeling 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Horse Be With You 15.00 8.7 16-1
10 10 Leo and Royal 10.00 9 17-1
5 5 Aula 5.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Amedeus Music 8.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Noble Huntsman 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 La Girvina 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Nyxed 1.80 1.9 4-1
5 5 Risk Free 3.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 Confirmed Star 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Misintention 3.50 6.4 12-1
4 4 Allegedly 15.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Lil Jersey Girl 50.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Addressable Market (IRE) 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Downtown Mischief 3.00 1 2-1
2 1 Stonewall Star 2.50 3.9 7-1
4 3 Peak of Chic 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 9 Royal Poppy 3.50 4.4 8-1
1 5 Starship Defiant 5.00 4.7 9-1
1A 6 Taming the Tigress 5.00 5.7 11-1
3 2 Desert Dalliance 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 4 Bank On Anna 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 7 Missy Greer 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Going for Glory 0 0-1
Mia Nipotina 0 0-1
Mysaria 0 0-1
12 12 Needed 3.50 1 2-1
14 14 Necessaryandproper 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Going for Glory 12.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Mia Nipotina 10.00 4 8-1
5 5 Alotta Jays 30.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 No Layups 6.00 5 9-1
8 8 Dreamery 20.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Khali’s Storm 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Mysaria 20.00 7.2 14-1
13 13 Rezoom 8.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Lady Lawrence 30.00 11.2 21-1
9 9 Spicy Tuna 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Nigeria 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Miss Nyquist 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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