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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Monday, May 26, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sunny Isle Beach 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Laserjet 5.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Midnight Tango 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Psychedelic 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Cora’s Legacy 6.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Lady Mercedes 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Private Reserve 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Bo Bo Dough 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Personal Jet 3.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 High Five Sy 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Promissione 2.50 5.2 10-1
6 6 Believe in Dreams 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Pyromania 10.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Silver Screen 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Eglise 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Zambezi 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Explosively 15.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Ludwig 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Market Street 10.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Cloud Without Rein 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Bebedouro 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Cascade Cruiser 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 War and Majesty 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mobster 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Astar 10.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Fateful Lightning 3.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Keen Talent 10.00 2.7 5-1
13 13 Western Run 8.00 5 10-1
6 6 Esmark 10.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Ambition 12.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Got Stripes 8.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Banded Humor 20.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Nomolimbo 20.00 9.3 18-1
12 12 Zap d’Etat 20.00 11.6 22-1
14 14 Demetrius 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Sardis 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Math Tutor 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mighty Mike 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Miss Monroe County 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Mink Stole 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Violences Ohr 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Jeanie’s Faith 15.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Melly’s Birkin 4.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Royalewithcheese 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Crackle 15.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Hope Restored 4.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Muscle Mommy 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Copper Missile 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Raguel 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Lured Away 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Sweetalkingbourbon 4.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 The Thunderer 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Full Armor 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Unstable Prince 4.50 6.2 12-1
6 6 Googol Joke 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 She’s All Charm 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Vive Veuve 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Takemetothebeach 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Mo Fox Givin 3.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Streetwhereyoulive 20.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Summerintahoe 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Vinos Angel 20.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Pharoah’s Wine 6.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Stellar Lily 30.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Krispy Rice 30.00 12.1 23-1
14 14 Mercy Warren 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Windy Bay 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Secret Statement 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Standoutsensation 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Winning Colors S.) – Winning Colors S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hope Road 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Brightwork 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Mink’s Palace 8.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Two Sharp 1.60 3.1 6-1
2 2 Into Champagne 30.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Benedetta 20.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Miss Arlington 30.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Easy Red 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Harbor Springs 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Backtrack 3.50 1 2-1
14 14 Fever Night 8.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Magnum Force 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Racing Driver 10.00 4 8-1
7 7 Coalmoon 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Reverse Merger 6.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Conquering Cat 15.00 6.4 12-1
12 12 Covert Law 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Brereton’s Baytown 6.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Strategic Force 10.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Development Fee 4.50 7.9 15-1
9 9 Spirit Rags 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Tango Mike Mike 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gift Certificate 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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