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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 6, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Nanzig 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 What’s a Good Name 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Pulstar 3.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Practically Famous 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Lilies N Paradise 4.50 6 11-1
9 9 My Raquel 8.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 A P Sweetheart 15.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Spa Prospector 4.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Muriel Sax 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bebedouro 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Manabi 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Shipman 3.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Kigali 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 God of Wine 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Heavy Hitter 8.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Purse Thief 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 El Dandi 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Ship Ship Hooray 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 White Whale 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Shadow Coast 10.00 2 4-1
6 6 Ripped 15.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Monterey Bay 2.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Global Prosperity 15.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Edifice 15.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Tap Me a Song 10.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 The Reinbow Factor 12.00 9 17-1
8 8 Fond Farewell 15.00 9.4 18-1
14 14 Stormtown 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Nyttime Story 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Bella Bluegrass 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Our Starry Night 2.00 SCRATCH
12 12 More Than Prada 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Outofpi 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Cybertown 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Laughing Boy 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Act a Fool 10.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 American Blaze 15.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Tres Soles 3.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Huge Bigly 10.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Tiger Moon 5.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Winston Wolf 15.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Alejandro 15.00 9.8 19-1
5 5 Icarus 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tagliatelle 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Suga Steve 5.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Payne 1.80 2.7 5-1
1 1 Regal Rey 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Goodasiwonswas 2.50 5.3 10-1
4 4 Gilcrease 10.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Get Her Number 12.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Texas Red Hot 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Governor Sam 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Star’s Image 15.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Dreamaway 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Bridle a Butterfly 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Dreaminblue 15.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Coming in Hot 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Jet Sweep Joe 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Guy Smiley 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Homie 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gun Party 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Welaka 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 El Magnifico 2.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Real Men Violin 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Warrior Richard 2.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Run Quiet Run Fast 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Gowells Delight 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Good Temper 10.00 5.1 10-1
14 14 Good Long Cry 5.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Classic Appeal 20.00 10.3 19-1
7 7 Lady Orient 20.00 10.8 20-1
3 3 Love You Anyway 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Poema 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Bread to Run 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Eunomia 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Scattitude 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Yes It Tiz 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Birkin Girl 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Flip Flops 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Defiant Lass 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Wedding Mood (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dark Thirty 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Order Restored 3.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Heartbeat 2.50 1.8 3-1
10 10 Swift Kelce 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 Maclean’s Lullaby 6.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Lady of Light 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Cool Lucky Lady 15.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Goth 12.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Cote Fleurie 10.00 10.5 20-1
4 4 Nyaata 15.00 10.7 20-1
3 3 Truly Possible 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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