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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 12, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Manage Xpectations 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Super Costly 4.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Beach Bunny 3.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Twirling Good Time 3.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Mustang Lady 6.00 6 11-1
1 1 Eyes of Gold 12.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Hand It Over 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lend It Tewmey 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Go West 8.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 J J’s Ranger 12.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 W W Crazy 4.50 3 6-1
1 1 Sutherland 4.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Born Flawless 15.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Penrod 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Orb of the Boro 20.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Alejandro 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Kunshan Bridge 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 J J’s Joker 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Starlit Nite 4.50 1 2-1
13 13 Diva Calling 4.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Authentic Angel 8.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Highlight Show 3.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 Super Pachi 15.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Kitten Gloves 8.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Miss Rosso 15.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 String Music 12.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Thousand M P H 15.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Brunia 15.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Bee Too Sweet 15.00 10.1 19-1
7 7 Easy Kiss 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Dragon Navy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Flotation Station 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Priority Lane 8.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Patton’s Tizzy 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Killjoy 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Beezer 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Burlsworth 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Partyvicious 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Tiverton (GB) 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Time for Music 4.50 1 2-1
12 12 Circle Tap 3.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Spirit of a Walkon 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Helpful Howie 20.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Stirring Words 4.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Our Forefathers 10.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Ring Curl 15.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Trouble Calling 10.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Tiz Authority 12.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Urgency 10.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Canterville 20.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Spun D M C 10.00 9 17-1
11 11 Confessional 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Evening News 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mintastic 12.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Laughnowcrylater 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Excel Calculator 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Stellar Vino 8.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Overstatement 3.50 3.1 6-1
9 9 Guardian 6.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Complex Music 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Raising Kane 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Papa Ken 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Just Deeds 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Mr. Sensei 10.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Cuzin Roscoe 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Wildncrazyguy 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Ganaas 6.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Naughton 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 It Takes a Cowboy 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Corona de Oro 10.00 1 2-1
9 9 Apollo Eleven 10.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Fuzzbuster 5.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Cabourg 8.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Into the Beast 3.50 2.3 4-1
8 8 Holy Seven 4.50 2.8 5-1
12 12 Pea Ridge 30.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Frontier Justice 20.00 5 9-1
10 10 Stable Hero 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Complexed 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Candy King 8.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Mom’s Spaghetti 12.00 6.9 13-1
13 13 Fuoco Vivo 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Champlin 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Ryvit 12.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Harrodsburg 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Nova Rags 6.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Cat On Time 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Gold Luck 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Three Technique 6.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Kavod 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Magnificent Rags 3.00 1 2-1
11 11 Beck’s Dreamer 4.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Pacific Standard 3.50 2.9 6-1
7 7 Cool Andy 12.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Come to Papa 12.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Frosty Beer 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Edifice 5.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Big Rog 20.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Traitour 12.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Pyromania 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Sinatra 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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