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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 19, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Plaza Cue 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Churning Berni 2.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Senora d’Oro 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Scooch Over 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Mimi’s Grace 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 No Time to Wait 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Angel Bella 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Donita 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Stylet 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Parking Lot Pours 1.80 1.1 2-1
4 4 My Favorite Girl 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Justtakethecannoli 8.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Lady Dixie 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Pickleball Queen 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Vino Alla Mora 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tearin’up My Heart 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Zoomaha 2.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Run Mama Run 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Zafyre 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Fly Chikka 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Smoochie Boo 12.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Golexgo 15.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Annabelle B 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mad About Marie 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Princess Kalamoh 4.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Ce La Vi Charli 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Harlan’s Bond 5.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Curls Nite Out 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Fasta Lavista Baby 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Champagne On Ice 12.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Little Dixie 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 No Show 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Tagermeen 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Magicallymelicious 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 White Tiger 5.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Englishman 8.00 6 11-1
13 13 Delancey Street 10.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Astound 10.00 7.7 14-1
14 14 Sartorial 12.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Hoss N Boss 12.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Adir 12.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 One Reward 15.00 11.8 22-1
11 11 Six String Prince 15.00 11.8 22-1
15 15 Maximus C 15.00 11.8 22-1
8 8 Our Standard 20.00 16 30-1
2 2 Highly Connected 20.00 16 30-1
12 12 Trabolta 20.00 16 30-1
16 16 Veneno Futuro 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Poetica 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Demi 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Divine Gal 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Red Hot Jeanie 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Altered Shot 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Frango Electrico 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Wildcatjustice 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Bella Cruella 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Caviar Breakfast 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Tricky Kitty 3.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Union Rose 3.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Lady Iva 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Smokin Hot Blonde 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 El Zain 15.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Rodina 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Bella Bluegrass 20.00 9 17-1
7 7 Justifiable Star 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Single Dot Yaht 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Mo Hope 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Indy Charges On 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 King Peanut 5.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Hero’s Medal 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Conquering Cat 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Ladan 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Itsinmyblood 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Trouble in Love 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Velvet Devil 4.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 Foie Gras 4.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 September Magic 8.00 4 8-1
7 7 Tetiaroa 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Shared Vision 10.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Abitibi 12.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Chaching Chaching 12.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 No What Ifs 12.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Sunset Harbour 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Coaster 12.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Lady of Silence 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Atlantic Dancer 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Air Cav 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Focusyn 5.00 2.1 4-1
15 15 Sprint Out Pass 5.00 2.1 4-1
14 14 Big Salt Lick 6.00 2.7 5-1
13 13 Brave Blend 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Midnight Boss 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Epic Battle 8.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Purse Thief 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Cannon 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Promissione 12.00 6 11-1
9 9 Stradivarian 15.00 7.7 14-1
16 16 Clear Echo 20.00 10.4 20-1
12 12 Runamor 20.00 10.4 20-1
5 5 Noble Gentleman 30.00 16 30-1
3 3 Greatdayforhockey 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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