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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 19, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Plaza Cue 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Churning Berni 2.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Scooch Over 6.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Donita 15.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 No Time to Wait 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Mimi’s Grace 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Senora d’Oro 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Angel Bella 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Parking Lot Pours 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 My Favorite Girl 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Justtakethecannoli 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Vino Alla Mora 15.00 4 8-1
2 2 Lady Dixie 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Pickleball Queen 15.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Stylet 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tearin’up My Heart 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Run Mama Run 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Zoomaha 2.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Zafyre 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Annabelle B 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Golexgo 15.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Fly Chikka 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Smoochie Boo 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ce La Vi Charli 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Mad About Marie 3.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Curls Nite Out 5.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Princess Kalamoh 4.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Fasta Lavista Baby 6.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Champagne On Ice 12.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 No Show 20.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Little Dixie 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Harlan’s Bond 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Tagermeen 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Magicallymelicious 3.50 5.7 11-1
9 9 Englishman 8.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 White Tiger 5.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Trabolta 20.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Adir 12.00 9.4 18-1
4 4 One Reward 15.00 9.8 19-1
2 2 Highly Connected 20.00 9.9 19-1
5 5 Hoss N Boss 12.00 10 19-1
11 11 Six String Prince 15.00 10.8 20-1
14 14 Sartorial 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Delancey Street 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Our Standard 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Astound 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Veneno Futuro 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Maximus C 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Poetica 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Divine Gal 4.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Demi 3.50 5.2 10-1
3 3 Frango Electrico 10.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Bella Cruella 15.00 7 13-1
7 7 Red Hot Jeanie 4.50 7.5 14-1
5 5 Wildcatjustice 12.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Altered Shot 5.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Caviar Breakfast 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Tricky Kitty 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Lady Iva 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Union Rose 3.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 El Zain 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Smokin Hot Blonde 10.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Bella Bluegrass 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Justifiable Star 20.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Rodina 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mo Hope 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Itsinmyblood 15.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Single Dot Yaht 2.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Conquering Cat 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Indy Charges On 4.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Ladan 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Hero’s Medal 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 King Peanut 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Foie Gras 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Velvet Devil 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Trouble in Love 3.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 September Magic 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Tetiaroa 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Shared Vision 10.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Chaching Chaching 12.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Abitibi 12.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Coaster 12.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 No What Ifs 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Lady of Silence 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Sunset Harbour 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Epic Battle 8.00 1 2-1
15 15 Sprint Out Pass 5.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Purse Thief 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Noble Gentleman 30.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Air Cav 4.50 3.9 7-1
11 11 Atlantic Dancer 3.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Midnight Boss 6.00 6.1 11-1
12 12 Runamor 20.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Cannon 10.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Stradivarian 15.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Promissione 12.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Greatdayforhockey 30.00 11.2 21-1
14 14 Big Salt Lick 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Brave Blend 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Focusyn 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Clear Echo 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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