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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Honest Al 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Lambo 1.40 1.6 3-1
3 3 Bob’s Carrot 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 My Own 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Putting Eagle 15.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Master Mule 10.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Scottish Storm 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Wanna Go Home 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Synoptic 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Woodall Pass 15.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Authentic Charm 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Matty’s Baby 5.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Bistineau Beauty 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Nonstop Vino 4.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Have Faith 15.00 6 11-1
10 10 Gold Lady 20.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 News Too Serious 20.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Dale 12.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 The Long Embrace 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 In Awe of Juju 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Going Streakin 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Sweet Note 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Gold Del Mar 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Miss Tifeye 8.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 I Am Beautiful 3.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Bright Lady Day 10.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Miss Makenna 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Restless Renegade 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Shadow Coast 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Saint Shance 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Soco and Lime 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Berniedott 15.00 5 9-1
8 8 All the Luck 6.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Or Magique 20.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Gold Factor 15.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Mr Entertainer 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Ludwig 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Magic Castle 12.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Sutherland 5.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Kunshan Bridge 3.50 6.3 12-1
10 10 M B’s Munning 8.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 W W Crazy 12.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Born Flawless 6.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Hometown Hero 30.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Twirling Roses 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Dr. Soulfire 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Dutch Mills 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tom Cat Tuesday 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Wobbegong 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Skyler 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 McMusic 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 Lost in the Sauce 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Jinxzi 4.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Open Court 12.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Sand Street 10.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Colonel Compton 10.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Prince Day 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dragoon Guard 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Bendoog 4.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Best Actor 3.50 4.5 9-1
7 7 Warrior Johny 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Speed Bias 30.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Honor Marie 5.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Notary 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Trademark 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Big Trouble 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Caribbean Wind 3.50 5 9-1
10 10 Debt Free 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Party Pauline 10.00 9.1 17-1
12 12 Speighter Woman 30.00 9.4 18-1
14 14 Mila Candy 15.00 11 21-1
16 16 I’m a Cookie Lover 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Small Hollow 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Beautiful Crazy 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Cotillard 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Lovely Emma 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mechaya 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Grade A 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Perfect Figure 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bunratty Manor (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cat Eyes (IRE) 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Shot of Courage 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Hey Boss 3.00 3 6-1
9 9 Twirling Troillet 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Huge Bigly 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Metatron’s Muse 4.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 People Force 6.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Runwithheart 6.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Liam the Brave 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Forge in Fire 10.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Lemon Drop Shot 12.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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