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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Lambo 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Bob’s Carrot 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Scottish Storm 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Honest Al 5.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 My Own 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Master Mule 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Putting Eagle 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Nonstop Vino 4.00 1 2-1
11 11 Wanna Go Home 4.50 1.3 3-1
3 3 Synoptic 5.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Matty’s Baby 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Authentic Charm 6.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 The Long Embrace 8.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Bistineau Beauty 12.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Dale 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Have Faith 15.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Woodall Pass 15.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 News Too Serious 20.00 12 23-1
10 10 Gold Lady 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 I Am Beautiful 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 In Awe of Juju 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Going Streakin 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Sweet Note 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Miss Tifeye 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Bright Lady Day 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Miss Makenna 10.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Gold Del Mar 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Shadow Coast 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Restless Renegade 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Mr Entertainer 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Saint Shance 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 All the Luck 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Soco and Lime 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Gold Factor 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Berniedott 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Or Magique 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Ludwig 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Kunshan Bridge 3.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Sutherland 5.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Dr. Soulfire 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Born Flawless 6.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 M B’s Munning 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 W W Crazy 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Magic Castle 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Twirling Roses 15.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Dutch Mills 20.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Hometown Hero 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tom Cat Tuesday 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Jinxzi 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Skyler 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Wobbegong 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 McMusic 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Prince Day 10.00 8 15-1
9 9 Sand Street 10.00 8 15-1
10 10 Colonel Compton 10.00 8 15-1
8 8 Lost in the Sauce 12.00 10 19-1
5 5 Open Court 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dragoon Guard 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Best Actor 3.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Bendoog 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Honor Marie 5.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Warrior Johny 6.00 2 4-1
8 8 Notary 10.00 3 6-1
2 2 Trademark 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Speed Bias 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Caribbean Wind 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Mechaya 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Big Trouble 4.50 1.6 3-1
13 13 Cat Eyes (IRE) 5.00 1.9 3-1
10 10 Debt Free 6.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Perfect Figure 6.00 2.4 5-1
15 15 Beautiful Crazy 8.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Grade A 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Party Pauline 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Lovely Emma 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Bunratty Manor (IRE) 12.00 5.8 11-1
14 14 Mila Candy 15.00 7.5 14-1
16 16 I’m a Cookie Lover 20.00 10.3 20-1
12 12 Speighter Woman 30.00 16 30-1
4 4 Small Hollow 30.00 16 30-1
6 6 Cotillard 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Hey Boss 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Metatron’s Muse 4.00 2 4-1
10 10 Shot of Courage 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 People Force 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Runwithheart 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Forge in Fire 10.00 8 15-1
9 9 Twirling Troillet 10.00 8 15-1
7 7 Huge Bigly 12.00 10 19-1
5 5 Lemon Drop Shot 12.00 10 19-1
3 3 Liam the Brave 12.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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