Site icon Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 26, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Section 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Western Warrior 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Coach Rudy 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Horse of the Sea 3.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Tisum 12.00 3 6-1
7 7 Herbs Bolt 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Hayes Goal 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Vertrauen 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Flotation Station 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 String Theory 5.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Shipman 2.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Beezer 2.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Summer in Aiken 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Aggro 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mustang Lady 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Animal Fries 4.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Onmywaytosavthday 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Wild Acclaim 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Mombayla 3.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Tiz Salty 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dr. Saikali 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Message of Hope (IRE) 3.50 1.6 3-1
10 10 Liam’s Lagoon 8.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Bon Temps 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Maki Monarchy 3.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 City of Life 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Ice Wolf 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Roc and Ready Jo 12.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Ky Do Declare 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Aubrey’s Max 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ashes and Diamonds 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Kissin Cash 2.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Twisted Viper 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 It’s All Red 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Volatile Jinny 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Romanaya 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Purple and Gold 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Crimsonite 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Strong Destiny 2.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Sensing Flatter 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Delicious Diva 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Sonhador 3.50 3 6-1
4 4 Whitethorn 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Absolute Honor 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Spirit of Royal 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Inordinary 4.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Tripp’s Promise 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Our Moneyman 8.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Flash of Chaos 10.00 7 13-1
3 3 Prime Suspect 3.50 7.6 14-1
1 1 Awesome Gun 8.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Show Me the Munny 15.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 Starmetal 30.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Wood You Dare 15.00 9.7 18-1
8 8 Reckless 12.00 10.6 20-1
9 9 Mister Landry 30.00 11.5 22-1
13 13 Stradale 1.60 SCRATCH
16 16 Confessional 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Steel Golden 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Rockies Balboa 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nudge 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Escalation Clause 4.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 The Warden 3.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Baytown Bruiser 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Mega Magic 12.00 4 8-1
2 2 Fielding 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Express Line 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Lou’s Legacy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Bundle 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Union Mist 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Contrary 12.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Sharp Smile 3.50 4.9 9-1
4 4 Low Key 5.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Classy’n Connected 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Hidden Quarry 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Grayleigh 30.00 6 11-1
5 5 Claire’s Run 6.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Lobby Rendezvous 10.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Being Myself 10.00 7.7 14-1
7 7 Quinn’s Promise 30.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 L. A. Woman 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Trusty Troutman 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Malibu Smart 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Spying 2.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Asian Matriarch 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Sunset Beauty 10.00 5 9-1
4 4 Faire Plaisir 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Vino Tiempo 10.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Take Charge Omaha 8.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

Exit mobile version