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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 28, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Remi’s Moon 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Bermuda Blitz 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Summonyourcourage 3.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Grand Aspen 15.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Killjoy 4.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Lured Away 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bushido 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 American Xperiment 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Gilded Ruler 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Bebedouro 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Pair of Socks 3.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Nabokov 10.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Couperin 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Gilmore 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Brazenly 4.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Welaka 3.00 2 4-1
8 8 Papa Yo 5.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Unlimitedpotential 4.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Alternate Reality 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Dance Some Mo 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Greers Ferry 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Judicial Review 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Easy Wind 3.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Storm’s Wake 4.50 2.6 5-1
10 10 East Village 15.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 My Stubborn Lassie 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Honey Dutch 5.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Swamp King 5.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Vulcan’s Boots 12.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Smols 30.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Shake and Rattle 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tres Soles 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Candy Nun 3.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Category Ten 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Sant’ Antimo 5.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Ember 6.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Icarus 5.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Noahs Ark 30.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Sittin On Go 15.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Paynter’s Canvas 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ky Do Declare 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Big Rog 12.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Hephepcutdownnets 3.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Campaign Trail 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Mubarez 20.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Mister Banderas 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Major Mack 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 You Belong Here 6.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Du Monde 12.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Harbor Prince 8.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Practically Famous 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Diva Calling 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Don’tmindifido 4.50 4 7-1
1 1 Muriel Sax 12.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Grazie Prego 6.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Bective Abbey 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Tizmatic 15.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Mare’s Music 20.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Red Rainbow 20.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Easy Kiss 6.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Bet the Gray 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Linked Up 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 This Is Uscar 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Kupuna 10.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Not This Boy 1.20 1.6 3-1
3 3 Catching Freedom 3.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Moonlight 4.00 5 10-1
1 1 King Russell 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Foligno 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Day and Age 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Show of Force 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Optical 10.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Mesero 3.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Coco Cool 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Innately Good 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Just a Fair Shake 10.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Mission Improbable 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Vaporetti 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Carson Street 6.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Large Risk 6.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Incredibolt 4.50 2.8 5-1
10 10 Wicked Gun 10.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Saudi Panther 15.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Mountain Grandeur 10.00 6 11-1
5 5 Graced 8.00 6.6 13-1
6 6 Sartorial 12.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Time to Strike 5.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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