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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gnome 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Don’t Even 4.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Cielo 4.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Rebel With a Cause 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 No Bees 8.00 3 6-1
13 13 Ramajay 10.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Fitzgerald 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Fatguyinlittlecoat 12.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Orville’s Map 15.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Gallant Aces 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Chatterfield 20.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Eleos 20.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Blythes Ferry 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Kunan 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Chance 3.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Focusyn 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Silver Halo 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Megastar 10.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Clear Echo 15.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Corman 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Memes 20.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Geno’s Myth 20.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Woodspoint 20.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Midnight Boss 20.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Air Cav 30.00 13 25-1
10 10 Rancho 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Rancho Santa Fe 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Infiltrate 3.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Grand Mahogany 4.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Gloves Off 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Vamos Ya 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Court of Appeal 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Knick the Quick 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 So Special 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sleepingonfreedom 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Non Conforming 4.50 1.5 3-1
12 12 State of Attack 6.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Jolted 6.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Race Ready 8.00 3 6-1
13 13 Kingofsomewherehot 10.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Turnback 10.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Gentleman Jim 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Undertaker 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Patriot Moon 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Crypto Cory 15.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Ledbetter 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Aguila Negra 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Triskelion 2.50 1 2-1
16 16 Miss Soothsayer 3.50 1.6 3-1
13 13 Yaudacity 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Lady Jancis 4.50 2.1 4-1
9 9 High Street Pizzaz 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Belle of Liberty 6.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Map of the Moon 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Super Dreamy (IRE) 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Nelson’s Penny 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Pleasing 20.00 10.6 20-1
2 2 Brandie 20.00 10.6 20-1
11 11 Glazin’ Fury 20.00 10.6 20-1
14 14 Lost Chord 20.00 10.6 20-1
15 15 Runs On Dreams 20.00 10.6 20-1
8 8 Malanya 30.00 16 30-1
12 12 Blackwing 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Hillerito 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 One Magic Philly 3.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Easy Red 4.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Zadorsky 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Win N Your In 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Marmalade Skye 10.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Liuzza 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Pistol 20.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Xtreme Diva 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Valentinian 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Johny’s Rendezvous 4.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Chapman’s Peak 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Warlander 6.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Longbranch Lou 8.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Write Off Jerry 8.00 2.9 5-1
12 12 Fort Thomas 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Wish Carefully 15.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Domingo 15.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Fayette Spirit 20.00 8.4 16-1
13 13 Azoi 20.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Wakan 20.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Blue Coast 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Gin’s Beach Road 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Stilettos 4.00 1.3 3-1
8 8 Anakarina 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Princess Proud 6.00 2 4-1
2 2 Lynn’s Milky Way 6.00 2 4-1
10 10 Shezafunkydrummer 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Mega Mil 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Rosato 12.00 4 8-1
7 7 Moon Mystique 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Vekomancer 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Laurelin (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Fionn 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Opulent Restraint (IRE) 4.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Lush Lips (GB) 5.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Destino d’Oro 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Simmering (GB) 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Candy Quest 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Daisy Flyer 20.00 9 17-1
8 8 Will Then 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Countthebrave 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Dive Bomber 4.50 1.3 3-1
2 2 Remi’s Moon 6.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Uncle William 8.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Sinister Smile 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Did It Dialed 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Pineland 10.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Good Lord 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Air of Defiance 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Ravens Dream 15.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Utopian 20.00 12 23-1
5 5 Thrilla 20.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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