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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gnome 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Eleos 20.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Chatterfield 20.00 4.2 8-1
12 12 Orville’s Map 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Don’t Even 4.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 No Bees 8.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Fatguyinlittlecoat 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Rebel With a Cause 6.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Fitzgerald 10.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Cielo 4.50 6.8 13-1
1 1 Blythes Ferry 30.00 7 13-1
13 13 Ramajay 10.00 7.7 15-1
11 11 Gallant Aces 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Kunan 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Chance 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Geno’s Myth 20.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Corman 15.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Megastar 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Silver Halo 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Memes 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Midnight Boss 20.00 6.1 11-1
11 11 Air Cav 30.00 6.1 12-1
12 12 Clear Echo 15.00 6.6 13-1
13 13 Woodspoint 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Focusyn 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Rancho 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Gloves Off 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Rancho Santa Fe 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Infiltrate 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Knick the Quick 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 So Special 15.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Grand Mahogany 4.50 5.7 11-1
2 2 Vamos Ya 6.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Court of Appeal 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sleepingonfreedom 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Jolted 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Undertaker 15.00 2 4-1
10 10 Crypto Cory 15.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Non Conforming 4.50 5.8 11-1
7 7 Patriot Moon 15.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Ledbetter 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Gentleman Jim 10.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Turnback 10.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Aguila Negra 30.00 6.6 13-1
12 12 State of Attack 6.00 7.2 14-1
13 13 Kingofsomewherehot 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Race Ready 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Triskelion 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Nelson’s Penny 10.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Glazin’ Fury 20.00 6 11-1
5 5 Lady Jancis 4.50 8.1 15-1
6 6 Belle of Liberty 6.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 High Street Pizzaz 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Pleasing 20.00 9 17-1
12 12 Blackwing 30.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Map of the Moon 8.00 9.3 17-1
2 2 Brandie 20.00 9.4 18-1
13 13 Yaudacity 4.50 9.7 18-1
8 8 Malanya 30.00 10 19-1
14 14 Lost Chord 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Runs On Dreams 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Miss Soothsayer 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Super Dreamy (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 One Magic Philly 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Hillerito 1.80 1.3 2-1
3 3 Zadorsky 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Marmalade Skye 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Xtreme Diva 30.00 4 8-1
1 1 Liuzza 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Pistol 20.00 5 10-1
7 7 Easy Red 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Win N Your In 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Write Off Jerry 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Valentinian 4.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Longbranch Lou 8.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Warlander 6.00 2.4 5-1
12 12 Fort Thomas 12.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Domingo 15.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Wakan 20.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Johny’s Rendezvous 4.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Wish Carefully 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Chapman’s Peak 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Fayette Spirit 20.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Blue Coast 30.00 6.4 12-1
13 13 Azoi 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mega Mil 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Stilettos 4.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 Princess Proud 6.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Moon Mystique 15.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Gin’s Beach Road 3.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Lynn’s Milky Way 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Rosato 12.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Vekomancer 30.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Anakarina 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Shezafunkydrummer 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Laurelin (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Destino d’Oro 8.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Simmering (GB) 10.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Fionn 3.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Lush Lips (GB) 5.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Candy Quest 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Opulent Restraint (IRE) 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Daisy Flyer 20.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Will Then 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Did It Dialed 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Dive Bomber 4.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Pineland 10.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Air of Defiance 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Countthebrave 4.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Ravens Dream 15.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Thrilla 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Uncle William 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Utopian 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Good Lord 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Remi’s Moon 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sinister Smile 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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