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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 19, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 C F V Bullet 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Tres Soles 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Interlock Empire 6.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Ember 8.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Carillo 8.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Critical Threat 10.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 The Thunderer 12.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Ardanwood 15.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Liam the Brave 15.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Moon Charger 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Smokin Hot Wife 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Country Club 4.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Canterbury Lane 5.00 2 4-1
8 8 Justtakethecannoli 6.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Rest of the World 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Twisted Viper 8.00 3.4 6-1
13 13 Zen Dreams 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Sevenon 12.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Well Aware 15.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 People Get Ready 15.00 6.8 13-1
14 14 Zettie 20.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Pickleball Queen 20.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 My Favorite Girl 30.00 14 26-1
7 7 Betty Who 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sugaree 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 L’Eclair 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Peach Tie 4.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Scot’s Law 5.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Starlit Nite 6.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Have Faith 8.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Valala 8.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Wickedwithbourbon 12.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Victor Help Me 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Kilo Tango 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Prince of Light 3.00 1.4 3-1
13 13 Clark’s Corner 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Thebabeslayer 4.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Turbo Launch 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Muir Woods 6.00 4 8-1
15 15 Wargamer (IRE) 6.00 4 8-1
16 16 Shuggy 8.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Final War 8.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Khetam 12.00 9.1 17-1
12 12 Mr. Vaggio 12.00 9.1 17-1
6 6 Sun Dodger 15.00 11.7 22-1
11 11 Timestream 15.00 11.7 22-1
5 5 Exosome 20.00 16 30-1
9 9 Telecaster 20.00 16 30-1
3 3 Rippin 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 My Noble Knight 3.00 1 2-1
12 12 Money Run 3.50 1.3 2-1
9 9 Hoodlum 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Swaggish 6.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Hey Boss 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Twirling Troillet 8.00 3.6 7-1
14 14 Dr. Storm 12.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Shot of Courage 12.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Huge Bigly 15.00 7.2 14-1
13 13 Lemon Drop Shot 20.00 9.8 19-1
3 3 Hard Rye Guy 20.00 9.8 19-1
1 1 Mister Muldoon 20.00 9.8 19-1
15 15 Category Ten 30.00 15 28-1
10 10 People Force 30.00 15 28-1
2 2 Greers Ferry 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Big Trouble 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Don’t Say It 4.50 2.2 4-1
13 13 Sweet Kaufy 4.50 2.2 4-1
12 12 Niki Nine Doors 6.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Velvet Devil 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Dala 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Princess Bettina 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Into Champagne 15.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Hideki 20.00 8.7 17-1
8 8 Caberneigh 20.00 8.7 17-1
9 9 Pretty Layla 20.00 8.7 17-1
1 1 Dancing Magic 30.00 13 25-1
10 10 Stormy Paradise 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Excite 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Only in America 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Fountain Lake 4.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Energize 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Pagode 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Racing Driver 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 New Magic 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Sun Thunder 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Run Quiet Run Fast 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Rood & Riddle Dowager S.) – Rood & Riddle Dowager S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Vive Veuve 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Spanish Eyes (GER) 4.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Duvet Day (IRE) 4.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Miwa (GB) 4.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Venencia (FR) 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Adrasteia 8.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Bless My Stars (SAF) 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Cupids Crush 20.00 9 17-1
1 1 Boss Lady Bailey 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Trouble Calling 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Coming Soon 4.50 1.5 3-1
12 12 Somethingdangerous 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Our Moneyman 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Archimedes 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Ilios 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 McFasty 10.00 4.2 8-1
13 13 Smell of Money 10.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Task Force O 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Associated 15.00 6.6 13-1
8 8 Lay Down the Law 15.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Impractical 20.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 Mom’s Spaghetti 30.00 14 26-1
14 14 Election Night 30.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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