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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 23, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shortstop 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sprint Out Pass 2.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 No Take Backs 4.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Cloudy Holiday 20.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Odorico 30.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Dan d’Oro 20.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Farm Team 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Strummin 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Putting Eagle 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Time for Music 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Flash of Chaos 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Like Water 12.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Election Night 30.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Maximum Effort 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Forever Rocket 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Bhatia 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Leading Change 1.60 SCRATCH
4 4 Refined Design 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Oujda (FR) 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 Twirling Queen 2.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Ms. Tart 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Youalmosthadme 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Crown Imperial 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Twirl Around 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Papa Yo 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Askari 4.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Remi’s Moon 6.00 1.9 3-1
6 6 Sweetalkingbourbon 2.50 2.2 4-1
9 9 Bermuda Blitz 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Googol Joke 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Utopian 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Weaponized 15.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Mission Improbable 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Real Drama 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Temple Goddess 15.00 1.1 2-1
12 12 Combustible Mass 15.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Turkish Pistachio 12.00 3.9 7-1
13 13 Lilo Lil 8.00 4 7-1
8 8 Paseo 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Core Memories 8.00 7.7 14-1
3 3 About and Around 15.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Love and Grace 4.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Amberglen (IRE) 3.00 8 15-1
6 6 Love Knicks Hart 20.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 River Waveney 30.00 8.6 16-1
14 14 Sugar Doll 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Academic Freedom 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Eve 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 All About You 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Antietam 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Wizard of Yester 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bon Temps 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Cinister Cix 30.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Nuanced 3.50 7.2 14-1
11 11 Hamlet 15.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Charisma 10.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Voulezvous 8.00 9.1 17-1
5 5 Private Show 5.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Legend of Bobby C 20.00 10.2 19-1
8 8 Trouble Ahead 12.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Expressway 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 East Village 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Easy Wind 4.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Longhi 12.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Baytown Dreamer 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Fulleffort 2.50 4.8 9-1
4 4 Collecting 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 A Million Dreams 20.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Knoty Knicks 8.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Colt Forty Seven 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tanya Showers 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sam’s Treasure 1.20 1.2 2-1
6 6 Ervadean 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Lover Girl 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Caress 4.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Xtreme Smoke Show 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Lady Iva 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 The Palace Girl (GER) 8.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Auntie 5.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Pretty Tapit 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Rethink 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Smokin Hot Blonde 20.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Triumphant Spirit 4.00 4.5 8-1
12 12 Thames 15.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 One Happy Island 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Theravada 30.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Texas Queen 15.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 All the Feels 20.00 8.9 17-1
13 13 You’re So Vain 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Emmy Blue 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Lots of Kisses 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Evalina 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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