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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 26, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Search Party 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Just Singing 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Mony Mony 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Dancin in Old Town 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Holly Hetty 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Rift 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Miss Milky Way 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Highlight Show 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Dancewhenyoucan 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Soldier N Diplomat 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Awesome Connection 3.50 1.3 3-1
5 5 Password 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Meelo Time 4.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Repentless 4.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Tripp’s Promise 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Mr. Sensei 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Prepped 4.00 1 2-1
11 11 Mucafaah 4.50 1.5 3-1
12 12 High Honors 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Hamunaptra 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Forum 10.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Frosted Mug 10.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Moluccan 12.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Ravenous 12.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Flash the Magic 12.00 8.5 16-1
16 16 Khetam 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hoss N Boss 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Go for Rocket 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Strong 20.00 16 30-1
14 14 Apollo’s Glory 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Boonesboro 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ryu 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Intangible 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Llamp 4.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Kilby Girl 5.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 My Glenda Faye 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Blues Music 8.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Masala 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Gianna 15.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Thistooshallpass 15.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 Uptown Problems 15.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 Dream From Within 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Freaks Go 20.00 14 26-1
7 7 Quick Kiss 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mo Biscuit 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Fregata 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 White Tiger 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Roguishness 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Instant Impact 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Awesome Gun 5.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Devilish Act 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 In America 20.00 9 17-1
1 1 Sartorial 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Biz Whiz 20.00 9 17-1
3 3 Graced 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nonconsecutivetrms 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Seabound 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Rhapsody in Motion 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Last Curtain Call 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Strada Del Sogno 10.00 7.7 14-1
11 11 Indigo Woods (IRE) 10.00 7.7 14-1
12 12 That Wasn’t Me 12.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Don’s Joy 12.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 High Street Pizzaz 15.00 11.8 22-1
5 5 Academic Freedom 15.00 11.8 22-1
9 9 Minstrelly 20.00 16 30-1
2 2 Island Girl 20.00 16 30-1
15 15 Melody Maker 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lilo Lil 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kiss My Heart 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Oenophilia 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Stradale 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Rockies Balboa 3.50 2 4-1
3 3 Commentate 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Stable Hero 10.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Magic Moose 10.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Tedder 12.00 10.9 21-1
5 5 Spirit of Royal 12.00 10.9 21-1
6 6 Canterville 12.00 10.9 21-1
12 12 Tiernanogue 12.00 10.9 21-1
2 2 Street Party 15.00 14 26-1
10 10 Mumdoggie 15.00 14 26-1
7 7 Gun Range 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 U Jheremy 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Student Regent 15.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Rags To Riches S.) – Rags To Riches S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 The Grumpy Rabbit 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Life of Joy 2.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Go to Girl 4.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Josie Joe 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Americathegreat 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Tearin’up My Heart 20.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Kingsolver 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Thousandsticks 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Turbo Launch 15.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Sheriff Bart 6.00 2.6 5-1
13 13 Time for Money 12.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Shuggy 12.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Empire West 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Garryowen 20.00 7 13-1
11 11 Robert Lee 20.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Dark Hope 20.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Wadi Al Kouf 15.00 9 17-1
8 8 He’s a Charmer 20.00 9.1 17-1
14 14 Dufoof 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Zeppelin 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Let’s Be Frank 2.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Big Apple Patrick 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Distinct 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Street Sense S.) – Street Sense S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Universe 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Incredibolt 3.50 2.4 5-1
6 6 I Did I Did 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Ganaas 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Very Connected 8.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Vost 4.50 4.5 9-1
5 5 Bricklin 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Jetty’s Home 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sway House 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Smokin Hot Stuff 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Frosty for Ever 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Clap Back 4.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 A P Sweetheart 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 By La Rina 15.00 7.7 14-1
6 6 Hoakalei 8.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Halfway to Omaha 12.00 9.8 19-1
9 9 Fizzy Lass 15.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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